NAC Breda 3-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus Dordrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 24 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Rat Verlegh Stadion, NAC Breda have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dordrecht (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward NAC Breda. A 0.50 PPG lead over Dordrecht (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: NAC Breda 1W, Dordrecht 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 3–0 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 57% versus Dordrecht 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 60% | Dordrecht 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.86 xG and Dordrecht 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.077 / defence 0.868 | Dordrecht attack 0.778 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.213. Data: 63 NAC Breda games / 63 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 62% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 16%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Dordrecht 6.25. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: NAC Breda 70% | Dordrecht 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 62% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 47% | xG NAC Breda 1.86 / Dordrecht 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.077 / def 0.868 | Dordrecht attack 0.778 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Dordrecht xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Dordrecht kick off?
NAC Breda vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 February 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
NAC Breda 3 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is NAC Breda vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Dordrecht part of?
NAC Breda vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 62% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both NAC Breda and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Dordrecht?
Record (3 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and Dordrecht in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 1.08x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.78x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.54
16%
6.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.68
0.82
Dordrecht xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
6.26
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
2%
40.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for NAC Breda and 0.82 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NAC Breda come into this having played 63 games, going 26W 13D 24L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.03 PPG from 63 outings (17W 14D 32L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
NAC Breda's home form reads 16W 8D 7L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.77 points per game from 31 outings (6W 6D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.30 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 60%.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 26W 13D 24L in their last 63 games (1.44 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 17W 14D 32L in their last 63 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Dordrecht away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.81 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-3 on 22 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
1
Draws
3
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Dordrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Dordrecht have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2024, when NAC Breda 1-4 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 52%, Dordrecht 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (NAC Breda) and 68% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of NAC Breda's games and 64% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of NAC Breda's matches and 68% of Dordrecht's.
Do NAC Breda and Dordrecht tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out Dordrecht 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Dordrecht 3-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.86 xG and Dordrecht 0.82 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dordrecht outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.08 / defence 0.87 against Dordrecht attack 0.78 / defence 1.00, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 62% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 16%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 60%, Dordrecht 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.