MVV 3-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates MVV at 40%, yet in-form PEC Zwolle provide a compelling counter-argument — this MVV vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees PEC Zwolle travel to De Geusselt to take on MVV. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 February 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV at De Geusselt this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — MVV are significantly better at De Geusselt than their overall form suggests.
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PEC Zwolle are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for MVV, 0 for PEC Zwolle and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with MVV winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
MVV in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 63% versus PEC Zwolle 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 66% | PEC Zwolle 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.61 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.234 / defence 1.026 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.197 / defence 0.755. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.221. PEC Zwolle's defence strength of 0.755 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 MVV games / 25 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 40% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 36%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | PEC Zwolle 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates MVV as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PEC Zwolle (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on MVV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: MVV 70% | PEC Zwolle 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Monday 27 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 40% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG MVV 1.61 / PEC Zwolle 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.234 / def 1.026 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.197 / def 0.755 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: MVV (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.50
PEC Zwolle xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
MVV vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 27 February 2023 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs PEC Zwolle?
MVV 3 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is MVV vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs PEC Zwolle part of?
MVV vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 40% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both MVV and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and PEC Zwolle?
Record (1 meetings): MVV 1W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are MVV and PEC Zwolle in?
MVV (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from MVV's attack rating (1.23) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
40%
2.47
24%
4.20
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
MVV xG
Total xG
3.11
1.50
PEC Zwolle xG
2.47
40%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
7%
13.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are MVV and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for MVV and 1.50 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, MVV have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 21W 9D 29L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle's form line: 25W 9D 25L from 59 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.22 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, MVV have posted 1.45 PPG from 29 outings (12W 6D 11L).
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 13W 2D 14L from 29 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
MVV are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.46 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 21W 9D 29L in their last 59 games (1.22 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 25W 9D 25L in their last 59 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or PEC Zwolle away?
MVV's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.45 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between MVV and PEC Zwolle runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
MVV
0
Draws
0
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and PEC Zwolle?
From 2 meetings on record, MVV have won 2, PEC Zwolle have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did MVV and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2023, when MVV 3-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between MVV and PEC Zwolle?
MVV have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 62%, PEC Zwolle 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (MVV) and 52% (PEC Zwolle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle in 34%; PEC Zwolle in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of MVV's recent matches and 31% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is MVV vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of MVV's matches and 52% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do MVV and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as MVV edge out PEC Zwolle 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat PEC Zwolle 3-2 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.61 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.50 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. MVV beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.23 / defence 1.03 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.20 / defence 0.76, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 40% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 36%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 66%, PEC Zwolle 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.22 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.