MVV 1-3 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Geusselt plays host to MVV versus Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 21 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
MVV have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, MVV have posted 5W 0D 5L at De Geusselt — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for MVV, 1.10 for Jong AZ — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: MVV 3W, Jong AZ 4W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Jong AZ winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
MVV — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 49% versus Jong AZ 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 57% | Jong AZ 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.95 xG and Jong AZ 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.095 / defence 1.131 | Jong AZ attack 1.071 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.468. Data: 53 MVV games / 53 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 43% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 36%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.33 | Draw 4.76 | Jong AZ 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is MVV at 43% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: MVV 50% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 43% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 71% | xG MVV 1.95 / Jong AZ 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.095 / def 1.131 | Jong AZ attack 1.071 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: MVV (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Jong AZ xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Jong AZ kick off?
MVV vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 November 2025 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Jong AZ?
MVV 1 - 3 Jong AZ.
Where is MVV vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Jong AZ part of?
MVV vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 43% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 36% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both MVV and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Jong AZ?
Record (7 meetings): MVV 3W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 4W.
What form are MVV and Jong AZ in?
MVV (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates MVV's attack at 1.09x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (1.07x) against MVV's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
43%
2.34
21%
4.67
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
MVV xG
Total xG
3.73
1.78
Jong AZ xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.49
Clean Sheet
17%
5.92
14%
7.05
Win to Nil
7%
13.83
5%
19.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are MVV and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for MVV and 1.78 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
MVV come into this having played 53 games, going 14W 13D 26L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.25 PPG from 53 outings (18W 12D 23L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for MVV against 1.25 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
MVV's home form reads 12W 4D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — MVV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 1.38 points per game from 26 outings (10W 6D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
MVV are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.70 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 14W 13D 26L in their last 53 games (1.04 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 18W 12D 23L in their last 53 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Jong AZ away?
MVV's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.54 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: MVV won 4-0 on 1 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
MVV
1
Draws
5
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 4, Jong AZ have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Jong AZ 1-2 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 58%, Jong AZ 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for MVV and 62% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of MVV's games and 62% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of MVV's matches and 62% of Jong AZ's.
Do MVV and Jong AZ tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat MVV 1-3 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.95 xG and Jong AZ 1.78 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. MVV fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Jong AZ outscored their 1.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against Jong AZ attack 1.07 / defence 1.04, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 43% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 36%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 57%, Jong AZ 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.04 PPG, Jong AZ 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.