MVV 0-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Den Bosch travel to De Geusselt to take on MVV. The game is scheduled for Monday 15 November 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
MVV — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV at De Geusselt this season: 4W 0D 2L from 6 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — MVV are significantly better at De Geusselt than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's away record: 1W 1D 4L from 6 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: MVV 1.20 PPG, Den Bosch 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
MVV trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Den Bosch trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 46% versus Den Bosch 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 69% | Den Bosch 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.89 xG and Den Bosch 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.074 / defence 1.328 | Den Bosch attack 0.830 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.564. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.369 — this is suppressing MVV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 MVV games / 14 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 43% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 36%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Den Bosch 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates MVV as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on MVV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: MVV 67% | Den Bosch 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Monday 15 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 43% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG MVV 1.89 / Den Bosch 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.074 / def 1.328 | Den Bosch attack 0.830 / def 1.369 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.564 • Poisson stance: MVV (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Den Bosch xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Den Bosch kick off?
MVV vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 15 November 2021 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Den Bosch?
MVV 0 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is MVV vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Den Bosch part of?
MVV vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 43% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 36% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both MVV and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Den Bosch?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are MVV and Den Bosch in?
MVV (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from MVV's attack rating (1.07) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
43%
2.35
22%
4.59
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
MVV xG
Total xG
3.62
1.72
Den Bosch xG
2.35
43%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
15%
6.64
Win to Nil
8%
13.19
5%
18.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are MVV and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for MVV and 1.72 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
MVV's recent record stands at 6W 0D 7L from 13 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 7L across 13 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.38 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, MVV have managed 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — MVV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Den Bosch's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
MVV are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 2.46 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.23 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 6W 0D 7L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 5W 1D 7L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Den Bosch away?
MVV's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 2.00 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.67 PPG.
Have MVV or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
MVV have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between MVV and Den Bosch runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2025, when MVV won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
MVV
2
Draws
4
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 4, Den Bosch have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Den Bosch 1-2 MVV.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 67%, Den Bosch 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for MVV and 50% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Den Bosch in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of MVV's games and 50% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of MVV's matches and 50% of Den Bosch's.
Do MVV and Den Bosch tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat MVV 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat MVV 0-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.89 xG and Den Bosch 1.72 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. MVV fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.07 / defence 1.33 against Den Bosch attack 0.83 / defence 1.37, drawn from 13/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 43% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 36%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 69%, Den Bosch 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Den Bosch's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.38 PPG, Den Bosch 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.