MVV 0-3 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Almere City FC travel to De Geusselt to take on MVV. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 March 2022, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
MVV's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at De Geusselt this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Almere City FC have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Almere City FC are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. MVV register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Almere City FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for MVV, 0 for Almere City FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with MVV winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
MVV in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 55% versus Almere City FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 61% | Almere City FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.30 xG and Almere City FC 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.750 / defence 1.550 | Almere City FC attack 0.933 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.427. MVV's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing MVV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 MVV games / 31 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 23% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 55%. Fair-value odds: MVV 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | Almere City FC 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.36 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: MVV 60% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Mar 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 23% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG MVV 1.30 / Almere City FC 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.750 / def 1.550 | Almere City FC attack 0.933 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
MVV xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Almere City FC xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Almere City FC kick off?
MVV vs Almere City FC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 27 March 2022 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Almere City FC?
MVV 0 - 3 Almere City FC.
Where is MVV vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Almere City FC part of?
MVV vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 23% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both MVV and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Almere City FC?
Record (1 meetings): MVV 1W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 0W.
What form are MVV and Almere City FC in?
MVV (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from MVV's attack rating (0.75) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 2.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
23%
4.29
22%
4.54
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
MVV xG
Total xG
3.36
2.06
Almere City FC xG
4.29
23%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
13%
7.87
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
3%
33.75
15%
6.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are MVV and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for MVV and 2.06 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, MVV have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 9W 2D 20L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Almere City FC's form line: 8W 8D 15L from 31 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 0.94 PPG, Almere City FC on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, MVV have posted 0.93 PPG from 15 outings (4W 2D 9L).
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 4W 4D 7L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.48 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Current Season
Almere City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 9W 2D 20L in their last 31 games (0.94 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 8W 8D 15L in their last 31 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 0.93 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2025, when Almere City FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
MVV
1
Draws
3
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, MVV have won 2, Almere City FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when MVV 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — MVV at 60%, Almere City FC at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for MVV and 73% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of MVV's games and 80% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of MVV's matches and 73% of Almere City FC's.
Do MVV and Almere City FC tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Almere City FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat MVV 0-3 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.30 xG and Almere City FC 2.06 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. MVV fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Almere City FC outscored their 2.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.75 / defence 1.55 against Almere City FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.36, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 23% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 55%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 61%, Almere City FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Almere City FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 0.94 PPG, Almere City FC 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.