Jong Utrecht 1-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host NAC Breda at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 2 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong Utrecht at Stadion Galgenwaard this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Stadion Galgenwaard than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, NAC Breda have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong Utrecht at 1.20 PPG versus NAC Breda's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Jong Utrecht, 1 for NAC Breda and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2023, ended 4–1 with Jong Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 42% versus NAC Breda 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 44% | NAC Breda 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.73 xG and NAC Breda 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.980 / defence 0.818 | NAC Breda attack 1.117 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.398. Data: 45 Jong Utrecht games / 45 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 48% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 28%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | NAC Breda 3.57. Jong Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Utrecht at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 50% | NAC Breda 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Monday 2 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 48% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.73 / NAC Breda 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.980 / def 0.818 | NAC Breda attack 1.117 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.28
NAC Breda xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 2 October 2023 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda part of?
Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 48% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda?
Record (4 meetings): Jong Utrecht 2W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
48%
2.08
24%
4.24
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.01
1.28
NAC Breda xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
5%
20.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.28 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Utrecht come into this having played 45 games, going 10W 8D 27L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.40 PPG from 45 outings (19W 6D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Jong Utrecht's home form reads 8W 5D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.84 PPG overall — Jong Utrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.32 points per game from 22 outings (9W 2D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.67 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 73%.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 10W 8D 27L in their last 45 games (0.84 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 19W 6D 20L in their last 45 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or NAC Breda away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.32 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Feb 2023, when Jong Utrecht won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
2
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, NAC Breda have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when NAC Breda 3-1 Jong Utrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 32%, NAC Breda 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Jong Utrecht) and 82% (NAC Breda).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 73% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 82% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht and NAC Breda finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.73 xG and NAC Breda 1.28 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.98 / defence 0.82 against NAC Breda attack 1.12 / defence 1.12, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 48% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 28%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 44%, NAC Breda 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.