Jong Utrecht 1-0 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jong Utrecht face Groningen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Groningen make the trip to Stadion Galgenwaard to face Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Monday 21 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Jong Utrecht have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Jong Utrecht's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Groningen's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Groningen's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 1D 9L (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 0.40 for Groningen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 43% versus Groningen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 40% | Groningen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.72 xG and Groningen 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.872 / defence 0.955 | Groningen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.283. Data: built from Jong Utrecht's last 39 games and Groningen's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 53% | Draw 24% | Groningen 23%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 1.87 | Draw 4.20 | Groningen 4.38. Jong Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Utrecht are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong Utrecht's last 10 home games and Groningen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jong Utrecht 50% (last 10 home games) | Groningen 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Jong Utrecht 39 games, Groningen 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Groningen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 2 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Monday 21 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 53% | Draw 24% | Groningen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Jong Utrecht 1.72 / Groningen 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.872 / def 0.955 | Groningen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.719 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Groningen xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Groningen FAQs
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Groningen kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Groningen kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 21 August 2023 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Groningen?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 0 Groningen.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Groningen part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Groningen is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 2) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 53% chance of winning, Groningen a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Groningen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong Utrecht vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.87) and Groningen's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.85x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Jong Utrecht's last 39 games and Groningen's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
53%
1.87
24%
4.20
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.76
1.04
Groningen xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
4%
24.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Groningen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.04 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 7W 6D 22L from 35 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 24L across 35 games — 0.60 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.77 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 0.60 for Groningen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 5W 4D 8L from their last 17 home games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Groningen's away record stands at 1W 3D 13L across their last 17 away games, a 0.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.00 scored and 2.17 conceded.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
Groningen
Early Season
Jong Utrecht (Home) vs Groningen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
Groningen
Early Season
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Groningen Form FAQs
What form are Jong Utrecht and Groningen in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 7W 6D 22L in their last 35 games (0.77 PPG), while Groningen have gone 5W 6D 24L in their last 35 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Groningen away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.12 PPG; Groningen away: 0.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 22 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Jong Utrecht
0
Draws
1
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Groningen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Groningen?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong Utrecht have won 1, Groningen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Groningen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 December 2023: Groningen 2-1 Jong Utrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Utrecht see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Groningen see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 35%, Groningen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Jong Utrecht) and 59% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 47% of games; Groningen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs Groningen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong Utrecht and Groningen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 53% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jong Utrecht and Groningen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 59% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Jong Utrecht edge out Groningen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Groningen 1-0 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.72 xG and Groningen 1.04 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Groningen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.87 / defence 0.95 against Groningen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 53% | Draw 24% | Groningen 23%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 40%, Groningen 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Groningen's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.77 PPG, Groningen 0.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Groningen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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