Jong Utrecht 0-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch plays host to Jong Utrecht versus FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Monday 22 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong Utrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 3W 0D 4L at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch — 1.29 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game.
FC Volendam have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 4W 3D 0L from 7 away outings — 2.14 PPG. They are averaging 2.71 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Volendam arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Utrecht 60% and FC Volendam 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Utrecht 67% | FC Volendam 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.16 xG and FC Volendam 2.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.783 / defence 1.397 | FC Volendam attack 1.287 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.598. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Volendam have an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — the away xG of 2.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 Jong Utrecht games / 15 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 13% | Draw 15% | FC Volendam 73%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 7.69 | Draw 6.67 | FC Volendam 1.37. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (73%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.16 / 2.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.03 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 43% | FC Volendam 71% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 22 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 13% | Draw 15% | FC Volendam 73% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 65% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.16 / FC Volendam 2.87 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.783 / def 1.397 | FC Volendam attack 1.287 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.598 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
2.87
FC Volendam xG
65%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 22 November 2021 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam part of?
Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 13% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 73% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Jong Utrecht and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC Volendam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC Volendam in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 0.78x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (1.29x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 2.87.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-3 (8.1%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
13%
7.99
15%
6.74
73%
1.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
8.1%
Away win
0 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
4.03
2.87
FC Volendam xG
7.99
13%
Home win
6.74
15%
Draw
1.38
73%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
6%
17.71
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
1%
141.55
23%
4.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.9 |
| 1 | 2.1 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 3.4 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 2.87 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 5W 4D 6L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam's form line: 9W 5D 1L from 15 games, 2.13 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (3W 0D 4L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 4W 3D 0L from 7 away games — 2.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.60 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Utrecht have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 73%.
Last 15 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 9W 5D 1L in their last 15 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.29 PPG; FC Volendam away: 2.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
FC Volendam go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Jong Utrecht
0
Draws
4
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 0, FC Volendam have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2025, when Jong Utrecht 2-3 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 43%, FC Volendam 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Jong Utrecht and 71% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Jong Utrecht's games and 71% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 71% of FC Volendam's.
Do Jong Utrecht and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Jong Utrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Jong Utrecht 0-1 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.16 xG and FC Volendam 2.87 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong Utrecht fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC Volendam landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.78 / defence 1.40 against FC Volendam attack 1.29 / defence 1.18, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 13% | Draw 15% | FC Volendam 73%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 67%, FC Volendam 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.