Jong Utrecht 3-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 47%, yet in-form Den Bosch provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host Den Bosch at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 24 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 4W 3D 3L at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Den Bosch are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong Utrecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Den Bosch in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Den Bosch, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Jong Utrecht.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2025, ended 0–2 with Den Bosch winning.
It is worth noting that Den Bosch have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Jong Utrecht in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 56% versus Den Bosch 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 56% | Den Bosch 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.82 xG and Den Bosch 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.910 / defence 0.991 | Den Bosch attack 0.971 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.482. Data: 54 Jong Utrecht games / 54 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 47% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 30%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Den Bosch 3.33. Jong Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Utrecht are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Den Bosch (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 60% | Den Bosch 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 24 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 47% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.82 / Den Bosch 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.910 / def 0.991 | Den Bosch attack 0.971 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Den Bosch xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 24 November 2025 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Jong Utrecht 3 - 2 Den Bosch.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 47% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch?
Record (8 meetings): Jong Utrecht 1W | Draws 2 | Den Bosch 5W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
47%
2.13
23%
4.39
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.25
1.43
Den Bosch xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
11%
8.85
5%
20.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.43 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.74 PPG on a 8W 16D 30L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch's form line: 22W 13D 19L from 54 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Den Bosch are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 1.00 PPG from 27 outings (6W 9D 12L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 9W 5D 13L from 27 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.48 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 8W 16D 30L in their last 54 games (0.74 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 22W 13D 19L in their last 54 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Den Bosch away?
Den Bosch's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.00 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Jong Utrecht or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jan 2023, when Jong Utrecht won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
5
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, Den Bosch have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 56%, Den Bosch 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Jong Utrecht and 70% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 37% of games; Den Bosch in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 52% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 70% of Den Bosch's.
Do Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong Utrecht edge out Den Bosch 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Den Bosch 3-2 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.82 xG and Den Bosch 1.43 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jong Utrecht beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Den Bosch attack 0.97 / defence 1.17, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 47% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 30%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 56%, Den Bosch 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.74. Form was overturned, with Jong Utrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.