Jong AZ 0-0 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Telstar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Telstar travel to AFAS Trainingscomplex to take on Jong AZ. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 October 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Jong AZ have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Telstar have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Jong AZ) versus 1.40 (Telstar). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jong AZ, 1 for Telstar and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2022, ended 3–2 with Jong AZ winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Telstar in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 43% versus Telstar 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 49% | Telstar 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.78 xG and Telstar 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.339 / defence 0.972 | Telstar attack 0.993 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.355. Jong AZ carry an above-average attack strength of 1.339 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Jong AZ games / 49 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 49% | Draw 23% | Telstar 28%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Telstar 3.57. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 50% | Telstar 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 49% | Draw 23% | Telstar 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Jong AZ 1.78 / Telstar 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.339 / def 0.972 | Telstar attack 0.993 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Telstar xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Telstar kick off?
Jong AZ vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 24 October 2022 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Telstar?
Jong AZ 0 - 0 Telstar.
Where is Jong AZ vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Telstar part of?
Jong AZ vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 49% chance of winning, Telstar a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jong AZ and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Telstar?
Record (2 meetings): Jong AZ 1W | Draws 0 | Telstar 1W.
What form are Jong AZ and Telstar in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Telstar (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong AZ's attack rating (1.34) and Telstar's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
49%
2.06
23%
4.31
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.09
1.31
Telstar xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
5%
21.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.31 for Telstar, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 17W 7D 25L from 49 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Telstar, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 23L across 49 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.18 PPG, Telstar on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 11W 3D 10L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Telstar's away record stands at 6W 8D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.20 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Telstar in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 17W 7D 25L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while Telstar have gone 12W 14D 23L in their last 49 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Telstar away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.50 PPG; Telstar away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and Telstar runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong AZ's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
3
Draws
3
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, Telstar have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2025, when Jong AZ 1-2 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Telstar?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 46%, Telstar 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Jong AZ) and 58% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Telstar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Jong AZ's games and 67% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Jong AZ's recent games and 58% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and Telstar tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Telstar in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jong AZ's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 12, as Jong AZ and Telstar drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.78 xG and Telstar 1.31 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Telstar landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.34 / defence 0.97 against Telstar attack 0.99 / defence 0.80, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 49% | Draw 23% | Telstar 28%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 49%, Telstar 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Telstar's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.18 PPG, Telstar 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.