Jong AZ 2-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Roda make the trip to AFAS Trainingscomplex to face Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Monday 7 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 5W 1D 4L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
Roda have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.20 for Roda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Jong AZ 0W, Roda 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Roda — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 43% versus Roda 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 49% | Roda 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.08 xG and Roda 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.208 / defence 0.858 | Roda attack 0.953 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.391. Data: 51 Jong AZ games / 51 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 59% | Draw 21% | Roda 20%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Roda 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jong AZ 40% | Roda 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 7 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 59% | Draw 21% | Roda 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG Jong AZ 2.08 / Roda 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.208 / def 0.858 | Roda attack 0.953 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Roda xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Roda kick off?
Jong AZ vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 7 November 2022 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Roda?
Jong AZ 2 - 0 Roda.
Where is Jong AZ vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Roda part of?
Jong AZ vs Roda is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 59% chance of winning, Roda a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Jong AZ and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Roda?
Record (2 meetings): Jong AZ 0W | Draws 1 | Roda 1W.
What form are Jong AZ and Roda in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Roda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.95x) against Jong AZ's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.79
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.22
1.14
Roda xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
12%
8.02
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
3%
39.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.14 for Roda, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Roda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong AZ come into this having played 51 games, going 18W 8D 25L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.67 PPG from 51 outings (23W 16D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Jong AZ's home form reads 11W 4D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.32 points per game from 25 outings (8W 9D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Jong AZ are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.96 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 18W 8D 25L in their last 51 games (1.22 PPG), while Roda have gone 23W 16D 12L in their last 51 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Roda away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.48 PPG; Roda away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Jong AZ have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 6-1 on 12 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong AZ
2
Draws
3
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 5, Roda have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Jong AZ 2-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Roda?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 44%, Roda 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Jong AZ) and 60% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 60% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Jong AZ's recent games and 60% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and Roda tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Roda in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Roda 2-0 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.08 xG and Roda 1.14 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Roda landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.21 / defence 0.86 against Roda attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 59% | Draw 21% | Roda 20%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 49%, Roda 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Jong AZ winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong AZ (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.