Jong AZ 2-3 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Jong PSV U21 travel to AFAS Trainingscomplex to take on Jong AZ. The game is scheduled for Monday 12 December 2022, 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ at AFAS Trainingscomplex this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21 away from home this season: 1W 7D 2L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong AZ 1.20 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jong AZ, 1 for Jong PSV U21 and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Jong AZ winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Jong AZ trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 43% versus Jong PSV U21 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 47% | Jong PSV U21 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.89 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.107 / defence 0.808 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.131 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.354. Data: 53 Jong AZ games / 54 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 53% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 25%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Jong PSV U21 4.00. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 50% | Jong PSV U21 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 12 Dec 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 53% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Jong AZ 1.89 / Jong PSV U21 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.107 / def 0.808 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.131 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Jong PSV U21 xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 17:45 on Monday 12 December 2022 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Jong AZ 2 - 3 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 53% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21?
Record (2 meetings): Jong AZ 1W | Draws 0 | Jong PSV U21 1W.
What form are Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
53%
1.90
22%
4.46
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.13
1.24
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
4%
26.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.24 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 19W 9D 25L from 53 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 22L across 53 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.25 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 11W 5D 10L from 26 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 5W 9D 12L across 26 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.60 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 19W 9D 25L in their last 53 games (1.25 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 16W 15D 22L in their last 53 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.46 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong PSV U21 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2024, when Jong AZ won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong AZ
2
Draws
5
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 3, Jong PSV U21 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Jong AZ 0-2 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 42%, Jong PSV U21 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Jong AZ) and 58% (Jong PSV U21).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 38% of games; Jong PSV U21 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Jong AZ's games and 73% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Jong AZ's recent games and 58% of Jong PSV U21's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong PSV U21 defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Jong AZ 2-3 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.89 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.24 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.11 / defence 0.81 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.13 / defence 1.05, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 53% | Draw 22% | Jong PSV U21 25%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Jong PSV U21 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 47%, Jong PSV U21 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.25 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.