Jong AZ 1-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 36 as Jong AZ welcome FC OSS to AFAS Trainingscomplex. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 3W 5D 2L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Jong AZ) versus 0.80 (FC OSS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Jong AZ, 1 for FC OSS and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2023, ended 3–1 with Jong AZ winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 49% versus FC OSS 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 49% | FC OSS 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.35 xG and FC OSS 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.084 / defence 0.945 | FC OSS attack 0.814 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.326. FC OSS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Jong AZ's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Jong AZ games / 73 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 67% | Draw 18% | FC OSS 15%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | FC OSS 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 80% | FC OSS 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 67% | Draw 18% | FC OSS 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 58% | xG Jong AZ 2.35 / FC OSS 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.084 / def 0.945 | FC OSS attack 0.814 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.02
FC OSS xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs FC OSS kick off?
Jong AZ vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 8 May 2023 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Jong AZ 1 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Jong AZ vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs FC OSS part of?
Jong AZ vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 67% chance of winning, FC OSS a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Jong AZ and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
Record (3 meetings): Jong AZ 2W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are Jong AZ and FC OSS in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. FC OSS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 1.08x the league average against FC OSS's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
67%
1.49
18%
5.52
15%
6.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.37
1.02
FC OSS xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.52
18%
Draw
6.73
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
10%
10.52
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
1%
70.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.02 for FC OSS, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 25W 14D 34L from 73 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five.
FC OSS, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 40L across 73 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.22 PPG, FC OSS on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 15W 9D 12L from 36 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC OSS's away record stands at 9W 5D 22L across 36 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.22 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Current Season
FC OSS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 25W 14D 34L in their last 73 games (1.22 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 20W 13D 40L in their last 73 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or FC OSS away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.50 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and FC OSS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jong AZ won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
3
Draws
3
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 4, FC OSS have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC OSS 0-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and FC OSS?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 53%, FC OSS 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Jong AZ) and 64% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 31% of games; FC OSS in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 53% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Jong AZ's recent games and 64% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and FC OSS tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 36, as Jong AZ and FC OSS drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.35 xG and FC OSS 1.02 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against FC OSS attack 0.81 / defence 1.27, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 67% | Draw 18% | FC OSS 15%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 49%, FC OSS 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.22 PPG, FC OSS 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.