Jong AZ 0-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Den Bosch travel to AFAS Trainingscomplex to take on Jong AZ. The game is scheduled for Monday 28 April 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Jong AZ have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Jong AZ are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Jong AZ have won 1, Den Bosch 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 0–6 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 68% versus Den Bosch 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 70% | Den Bosch 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.87 xG and Den Bosch 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.041 / defence 1.159 | Den Bosch attack 0.941 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.679 / away 1.255. Data: 73 Jong AZ games / 73 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 48% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 28%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Den Bosch 3.57. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Den Bosch lead the H2H ledger, but Jong AZ carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 80% | Den Bosch 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 28 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 48% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Jong AZ 1.87 / Den Bosch 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.041 / def 1.159 | Den Bosch attack 0.941 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.679 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Den Bosch xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 28 April 2025 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Jong AZ 0 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is Jong AZ vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong AZ vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 48% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Jong AZ and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Den Bosch?
Record (7 meetings): Jong AZ 1W | Draws 3 | Den Bosch 3W.
What form are Jong AZ and Den Bosch in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong AZ's attack rating (1.04) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
48%
2.06
24%
4.15
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.24
1.37
Den Bosch xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
4%
23.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.37 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong AZ come into this having played 73 games, going 28W 17D 28L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Den Bosch sit at 1.15 PPG from 73 outings (22W 18D 33L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.38 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong AZ's home form reads 17W 7D 12L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Den Bosch have taken 1.08 points per game from 36 outings (11W 6D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong AZ are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.22 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 28W 17D 28L in their last 73 games (1.38 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 22W 18D 33L in their last 73 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Den Bosch away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.61 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Den Bosch won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
5
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, Den Bosch have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Jong AZ 2-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 67%, Den Bosch 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Jong AZ and 56% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 39% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Jong AZ's matches and 56% of Den Bosch's.
Do Jong AZ and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jong AZ's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 36, as Jong AZ and Den Bosch drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.87 xG and Den Bosch 1.37 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.04 / defence 1.16 against Den Bosch attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 48% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 28%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 70%, Den Bosch 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.38 PPG, Den Bosch 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.