Jong AZ 0-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host De Graafschap at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 3 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jong AZ's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at AFAS Trainingscomplex this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong AZ at 1.00 PPG versus De Graafschap's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong AZ register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Jong AZ have won 1, De Graafschap 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with De Graafschap winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 50% versus De Graafschap 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 48% | De Graafschap 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.58 xG and De Graafschap 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.058 / defence 1.053 | De Graafschap attack 1.246 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.331. De Graafschap have an above-average attack strength of 1.246 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 Jong AZ games / 68 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 35% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 42%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 80% | De Graafschap 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 3 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 35% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Jong AZ 1.58 / De Graafschap 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.058 / def 1.053 | De Graafschap attack 1.246 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.75
De Graafschap xG
66%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong AZ vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 3 April 2023 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Jong AZ 0 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong AZ vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 35% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Jong AZ and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
Record (3 meetings): Jong AZ 1W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are Jong AZ and De Graafschap in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
35%
2.85
23%
4.38
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.33
1.75
De Graafschap xG
2.85
35%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
17%
5.74
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
6%
16.37
9%
11.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.75 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 23W 14D 31L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
De Graafschap's form line: 25W 18D 25L from 68 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.22 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 1.50 PPG from 34 outings (14W 9D 11L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 14W 7D 13L from 34 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.44 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: De Graafschap in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 23W 14D 31L in their last 68 games (1.22 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 25W 18D 25L in their last 68 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or De Graafschap away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.50 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Jong AZ or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong AZ have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
De Graafschap go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2026, when De Graafschap won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
2
Draws
6
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, De Graafschap have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when De Graafschap 5-0 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 56%, De Graafschap 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Jong AZ) and 68% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 35%; Jong AZ have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Jong AZ's games and 56% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Jong AZ's matches and 68% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong AZ and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Jong AZ 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong AZ 0-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.58 xG and De Graafschap 1.75 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong AZ fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.06 / defence 1.05 against De Graafschap attack 1.25 / defence 0.88, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 35% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 42%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 48%, De Graafschap 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
De Graafschap's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.22 PPG, De Graafschap 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.