Jong Ajax 2-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Willem II (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jong Ajax face Willem II.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Willem II make the trip to Sportcomplex De Toekomst to face Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Monday 2 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong Ajax have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong Ajax have posted 1W 4D 5L at Sportcomplex De Toekomst — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Willem II (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Willem II have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Willem II are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Willem II in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Jong Ajax 1W, Willem II 3W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Willem II winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jong Ajax — key trading statistics (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Willem II — key trading statistics (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Ajax 51% versus Willem II 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 54% | Willem II 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.37 xG and Willem II 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.804 / defence 1.040 | Willem II attack 0.940 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.762 / away 1.553. Data: 61 Jong Ajax games / 23 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 33% | Draw 28% | Willem II 39%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Willem II 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 60% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Sportcomplex De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 2 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 33% | Draw 28% | Willem II 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Jong Ajax 1.37 / Willem II 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.804 / def 1.040 | Willem II attack 0.940 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.762 / away 1.553 • Poisson stance: Willem II (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Willem II xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Willem II kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 2 February 2026 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Jong Ajax 2 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Willem II part of?
Jong Ajax vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 33% chance of winning, Willem II a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Jong Ajax and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Willem II?
Record (5 meetings): Jong Ajax 1W | Draws 1 | Willem II 3W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Willem II in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Willem II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong Ajax's attack rating (0.80) and Willem II's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.94x) against Jong Ajax's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 61/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.59
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.89
1.52
Willem II xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
7%
13.93
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.52 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong Ajax come into this having played 61 games, going 12W 16D 33L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.08 PPG from 61 outings (17W 15D 29L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Jong Ajax against 1.08 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Jong Ajax's home form reads 8W 11D 12L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 1.06 points per game from 31 outings (8W 9D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.18 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 61%.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Willem II in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 12W 16D 33L in their last 61 games (0.85 PPG), while Willem II have gone 17W 15D 29L in their last 61 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Willem II away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.13 PPG; Willem II away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jong Ajax
1
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 2, Willem II have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Jong Ajax 2-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 42%, Willem II 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Jong Ajax) and 48% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Jong Ajax have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 61% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Ajax vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Jong Ajax's recent games and 48% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Ajax and Willem II tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Willem II in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong Ajax defy the odds to beat Willem II 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Willem II 2-1 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.37 xG and Willem II 1.52 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.80 / defence 1.04 against Willem II attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 33% | Draw 28% | Willem II 39%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Jong Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 54%, Willem II 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 0.85 PPG, Willem II 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.