Jong Ajax 6-1 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Ajax host VVV Venlo at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 25 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong Ajax — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jong Ajax's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Sportpark De Toekomst this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Jong Ajax are significantly better at Sportpark De Toekomst than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VVV Venlo stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
VVV Venlo's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong Ajax at 1.00 PPG versus VVV Venlo's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jong Ajax, 0 for VVV Venlo and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 3–1 with Jong Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong Ajax trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
VVV Venlo trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 80% and VVV Venlo 49% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Ajax 74% | VVV Venlo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 2.08 xG and VVV Venlo 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.456 / defence 1.188 | VVV Venlo attack 0.779 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.492. Jong Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.456 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Jong Ajax games / 35 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 54% | Draw 21% | VVV Venlo 25%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | VVV Venlo 4.00. Jong Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Ajax as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 80% | VVV Venlo 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 25 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 54% | Draw 21% | VVV Venlo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG Jong Ajax 2.08 / VVV Venlo 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.456 / def 1.188 | VVV Venlo attack 0.779 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.38
VVV Venlo xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 25 April 2022 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo?
Jong Ajax 6 - 1 VVV Venlo.
Where is Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo part of?
Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 54% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo?
Record (1 meetings): Jong Ajax 1W | Draws 0 | VVV Venlo 0W.
What form are Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
54%
1.87
21%
4.69
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.46
1.38
VVV Venlo xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
13%
8.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
3%
31.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.38 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 17W 8D 10L from 35 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five.
VVV Venlo, meanwhile, have gone 13W 5D 17L across 35 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jong Ajax by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VVV Venlo heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 11W 3D 3L from 17 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Jong Ajax are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
VVV Venlo's away record stands at 6W 2D 9L across 17 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Ajax are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.26 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Current Season
VVV Venlo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 17W 8D 10L in their last 35 games (1.69 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 13W 5D 17L in their last 35 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or VVV Venlo away?
Jong Ajax's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 2.12 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Jong Ajax won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong Ajax
1
Draws
4
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 5, VVV Venlo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when VVV Venlo 0-1 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo?
Jong Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 82%, VVV Venlo 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Jong Ajax and 59% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo in 35%; VVV Venlo in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play VVV Venlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Jong Ajax's games and 35% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Jong Ajax's matches and 59% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Jong Ajax and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong Ajax run riot with a 6-1 hammering of VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat VVV Venlo 6-1 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 2.08 xG and VVV Venlo 1.38 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Jong Ajax beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.46 / defence 1.19 against VVV Venlo attack 0.78 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 54% | Draw 21% | VVV Venlo 25%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 74%, VVV Venlo 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.59 average — above their attacking norm. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.