Heracles 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Heracles host Willem II at Erve Asito in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Heracles — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Heracles have posted 8W 1D 1L at Erve Asito — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Heracles 1.90 PPG, Willem II 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Heracles register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Willem II in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Heracles, 1 for Willem II and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with Heracles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Heracles trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Willem II trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 50% versus Willem II 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 60% | Willem II 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 2.78 xG and Willem II 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.667 / defence 1.086 | Willem II attack 1.069 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.247. Heracles carry an above-average attack strength of 1.667 — their λ of 2.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 24 Heracles games / 24 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 65% | Draw 17% | Willem II 18%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 1.54 | Draw 5.88 | Willem II 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (65%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.23. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.23 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.78 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heracles at 65% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 60% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Friday 17 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 65% | Draw 17% | Willem II 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 72% | xG Heracles 2.78 / Willem II 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.667 / def 1.086 | Willem II attack 1.069 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Heracles (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.78
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Willem II xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Willem II kick off?
Heracles vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 February 2023 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Willem II?
Heracles 1 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Heracles vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs Willem II part of?
Heracles vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 65% chance of winning, Willem II a 18% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Heracles and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Willem II?
Record (3 meetings): Heracles 2W | Draws 0 | Willem II 1W.
What form are Heracles and Willem II in?
Heracles (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Willem II (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Heracles's attack rating (1.67) and Willem II's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 2.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.2%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.6%), 1-1 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
65%
1.53
17%
6.00
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
5.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.78
Heracles xG
Total xG
4.23
1.45
Willem II xG
1.53
65%
Home win
6.00
17%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.54
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
6%
16.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
1%
89.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Heracles and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.78 expected goals for Heracles and 1.45 for Willem II, a combined total of 4.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Heracles have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 25W 8D 25L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II's form line: 20W 12D 26L from 58 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 1.43 PPG, Willem II on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Heracles have posted 1.93 PPG from 28 outings (16W 6D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Willem II have gone 5W 7D 16L from 28 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Heracles are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.22 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Willem II in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 25W 8D 25L in their last 58 games (1.43 PPG), while Willem II have gone 20W 12D 26L in their last 58 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Willem II away?
Heracles's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.93 PPG; Willem II away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heracles and Willem II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Heracles's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Heracles
2
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Heracles have won 3, Willem II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Willem II 1-2 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Willem II?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 57%, Willem II 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Heracles and 61% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Willem II in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Heracles's games and 57% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Heracles's matches and 61% of Willem II's.
Do Heracles and Willem II tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Willem II in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 25, as Heracles and Willem II drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 2.78 xG and Willem II 1.45 xG, a combined 4.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Heracles fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.67 / defence 1.09 against Willem II attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 65% | Draw 17% | Willem II 18%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 60%, Willem II 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.43 PPG, Willem II 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.