Helmond Sport 1-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Waalwijk travel to GS Staalwerken Stadion to take on Helmond Sport. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helmond Sport stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Helmond Sport have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Helmond Sport's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at GS Staalwerken Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Helmond Sport are significantly better at GS Staalwerken Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Waalwijk — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Waalwijk are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Helmond Sport register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Waalwijk in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Helmond Sport, 0 for Waalwijk and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Helmond Sport in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Helmond Sport 55% and Waalwijk 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 52% | Waalwijk 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.49 xG and Waalwijk 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.922 / defence 0.895 | Waalwijk attack 0.987 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.651. Data: 40 Helmond Sport games / 40 Waalwijk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 38% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 37%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Waalwijk 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Helmond Sport as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Waalwijk (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 60% | Waalwijk 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 38% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Helmond Sport 1.49 / Waalwijk 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.922 / def 0.895 | Waalwijk attack 0.987 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.651 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Waalwijk xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 21 August 2026 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk?
Helmond Sport 1 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk part of?
Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 38% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Helmond Sport and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Waalwijk?
Record (2 meetings): Helmond Sport 0W | Draws 2 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are Helmond Sport and Waalwijk in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Helmond Sport's attack rating (0.92) and Waalwijk's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
38%
2.60
25%
4.07
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.95
1.46
Waalwijk xG
2.60
38%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
9%
11.19
8%
11.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.46 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Helmond Sport have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 10W 10D 20L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Helmond Sport, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waalwijk's form line: 14W 14D 12L from 40 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helmond Sport on 1.00 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Helmond Sport have posted 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Helmond Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 6W 9D 5L from 20 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.78 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 80%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 10W 10D 20L in their last 40 games (1.00 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 14W 14D 12L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Waalwijk away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.50 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helmond Sport and Waalwijk runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Helmond Sport
3
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Waalwijk?
From 3 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 0, Waalwijk have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Helmond Sport 1-1 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Helmond Sport at 70%, Waalwijk at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Helmond Sport and 65% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Helmond Sport's games and 80% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Helmond Sport's matches and 65% of Waalwijk's.
Do Helmond Sport and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helmond Sport and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport and Waalwijk finished level at 1-1 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.49 xG and Waalwijk 1.46 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.92 / defence 0.90 against Waalwijk attack 0.99 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 38% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 37%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 52%, Waalwijk 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.00 PPG, Waalwijk 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.