Helmond Sport 2-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helmond Sport at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Helmond Sport and Roda meet at GS Staalwerken Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Monday 21 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Helmond Sport's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helmond Sport have posted 5W 3D 2L at GS Staalwerken Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Roda (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Helmond Sport's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Roda's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Helmond Sport have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Roda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Helmond Sport, 3 for Roda and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Helmond Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 60% versus Roda 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 56% | Roda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.69 xG and Roda 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 1.010 / defence 0.865 | Roda attack 0.730 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.492. Data: 48 Helmond Sport games / 48 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 53% | Draw 29% | Roda 19%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Roda 5.26. Helmond Sport hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Helmond Sport are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 60% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 21 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 53% | Draw 29% | Roda 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Helmond Sport 1.69 / Roda 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 1.010 / def 0.865 | Roda attack 0.730 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (53%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Roda xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Roda kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 21 October 2024 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Roda?
Helmond Sport 2 - 1 Roda.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Roda part of?
Helmond Sport vs Roda is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 53% chance of winning, Roda a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Helmond Sport and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Roda?
Record (6 meetings): Helmond Sport 2W | Draws 1 | Roda 3W.
What form are Helmond Sport and Roda in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Roda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Helmond Sport vs Roda?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 1.01x the league average against Roda's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.73x) against Helmond Sport's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
53%
1.90
29%
3.48
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.63
0.94
Roda xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
3%
28.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 0.94 for Roda, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Helmond Sport have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 20W 12D 16L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda's form line: 22W 16D 10L from 48 games, 1.71 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Helmond Sport against 1.71 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Helmond Sport have posted 1.79 PPG from 24 outings (12W 7D 5L).
On the road, Roda have gone 7W 11D 6L from 24 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helmond Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.52 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Roda in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 20W 12D 16L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while Roda have gone 22W 16D 10L in their last 48 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Roda away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.79 PPG; Roda away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Helmond Sport or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helmond Sport have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Roda in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 0-3 on 5 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Helmond Sport
2
Draws
5
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 3, Roda have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Roda 1-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 67%, Roda 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Helmond Sport) and 42% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Roda in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Helmond Sport's games and 58% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Helmond Sport's recent games and 42% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helmond Sport and Roda tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Roda in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Helmond Sport edge out Roda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat Roda 2-1 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.69 xG and Roda 0.94 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 1.01 / defence 0.86 against Roda attack 0.73 / defence 1.13, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 53% | Draw 29% | Roda 19%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 56%, Roda 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.50 PPG, Roda 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helmond Sport win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.