Helmond Sport 3-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong AZ make the trip to GS Staalwerken Stadion to face Helmond Sport in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Monday 11 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Helmond Sport (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Helmond Sport have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong AZ have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Helmond Sport against 1.50 for Jong AZ. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Helmond Sport register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Jong AZ in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Helmond Sport, 3 for Jong AZ and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Jong AZ winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Helmond Sport — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 57% versus Jong AZ 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 54% | Jong AZ 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.80 xG and Jong AZ 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 1.036 / defence 0.975 | Jong AZ attack 0.846 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.330. Data: 67 Helmond Sport games / 67 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 53% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 22%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Jong AZ 4.55. Helmond Sport hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Helmond Sport are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 80% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 11 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 53% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Helmond Sport 1.80 / Jong AZ 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 1.036 / def 0.975 | Jong AZ attack 0.846 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Jong AZ xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 11 March 2024 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ?
Helmond Sport 3 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ part of?
Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 53% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Helmond Sport and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Jong AZ?
Record (5 meetings): Helmond Sport 1W | Draws 1 | Jong AZ 3W.
What form are Helmond Sport and Jong AZ in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Helmond Sport's attack rating (1.04) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.85x) against Helmond Sport's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.87
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.90
1.10
Jong AZ xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
4%
28.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.10 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Helmond Sport have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 21W 18D 28L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Jong AZ's form line: 26W 16D 25L from 67 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Helmond Sport against 1.40 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Helmond Sport have posted 1.55 PPG from 33 outings (14W 9D 10L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 9W 7D 17L from 33 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helmond Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.57 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 61%.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 21W 18D 28L in their last 67 games (1.21 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 26W 16D 25L in their last 67 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Jong AZ away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.55 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helmond Sport have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Helmond Sport
1
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 5, Jong AZ have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Jong AZ 2-0 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Jong AZ?
Helmond Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 64%, Jong AZ 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Helmond Sport and 64% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Helmond Sport's games and 64% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Helmond Sport's matches and 64% of Jong AZ's.
Do Helmond Sport and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helmond Sport cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat Jong AZ 3-1 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.80 xG and Jong AZ 1.10 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Helmond Sport beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Jong AZ attack 0.85 / defence 1.08, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 53% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 22%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 54%, Jong AZ 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.21 PPG, Jong AZ 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helmond Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Jong AZ (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.