Groningen 2-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Groningen welcome Dordrecht to Euroborg in Eerste Divisie (matchday 13). Kick-off is Sunday 5 November 2023 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Groningen have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Groningen's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dordrecht — last 10 games: 5W 5D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dordrecht's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dordrecht are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Groningen in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 50% versus Dordrecht 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 59% | Dordrecht 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.12 xG and Dordrecht 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.734 / defence 0.912 | Dordrecht attack 1.013 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.276. Groningen's attack rating of 0.734 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from Groningen's last 12 games and Dordrecht's last 50.
Result probabilities: Groningen 33% | Draw 31% | Dordrecht 36%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 3.06 | Draw 3.18 | Dordrecht 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Groningen's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Groningen 30% (last 10 home games) | Dordrecht 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 13 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 33% | Draw 31% | Dordrecht 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Groningen 1.12 / Dordrecht 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.734 / def 0.912 | Dordrecht attack 1.013 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Dordrecht xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Groningen vs Dordrecht FAQs
What time does Groningen vs Dordrecht kick off?
Groningen vs Dordrecht kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Dordrecht?
Groningen 2 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is Groningen vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Dordrecht part of?
Groningen vs Dordrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 13) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 33% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Groningen and Dordrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Groningen vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.73x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Groningen's last 12 games and Dordrecht's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
33%
3.06
31%
3.18
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.29
1.18
Dordrecht xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Groningen vs Dordrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Groningen and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Groningen and 1.18 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 46 games, going 8W 8D 30L for 0.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.13 PPG from 46 outings (13W 13D 20L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 5W 4D 13L across their last 22 home games, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.91 points per game from their last 22 away games (5W 5D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.43 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
Groningen (Home) vs Dordrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Groningen
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Groningen vs Dordrecht Form FAQs
What form are Groningen and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 8W 8D 30L in their last 46 games (0.70 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 13W 13D 20L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Dordrecht away?
Dordrecht's away record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 0.86 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Groningen
1
Draws
1
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Groningen vs Dordrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Dordrecht?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Groningen have won 0, Dordrecht have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Groningen and Dordrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 February 2024: Dordrecht 1-0 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 41%, Dordrecht 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Groningen) and 54% (Dordrecht).
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Groningen vs Dordrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Groningen and Dordrecht matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Groningen's recent matches and 64% of Dordrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Groningen and Dordrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Groningen's recent games and 54% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Dordrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Groningen's recent matches and 82% of Dordrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Euroborg, Regular Season - 13, as Groningen and Dordrecht drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.12 xG and Dordrecht 1.18 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dordrecht outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.73 / defence 0.91 against Dordrecht attack 1.01 / defence 0.91, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 33% | Draw 31% | Dordrecht 36%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 59%, Dordrecht 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.13 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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