FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VVV Venlo make the trip to Kras Stadion to face FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
FC Volendam (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VVV Venlo's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. VVV Venlo have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VVV Venlo away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, VVV Venlo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Volendam lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 3–1 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
VVV Venlo — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 60% versus VVV Venlo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 62% | VVV Venlo 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.15 xG and VVV Venlo 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.450 / defence 0.902 | VVV Venlo attack 0.921 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.450 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 4 FC Volendam games / 42 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 54% | Draw 21% | VVV Venlo 25%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | VVV Venlo 4.00. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | VVV Venlo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 54% | Draw 21% | VVV Venlo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Volendam 2.15 / VVV Venlo 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.450 / def 0.902 | VVV Venlo attack 0.921 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.41
VVV Venlo xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo kick off?
FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Saturday 26 September 2026 at Kras Stadion.
Where is FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo part of?
FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 54% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Volendam and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and VVV Venlo?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 1 | VVV Venlo 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and VVV Venlo in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. VVV Venlo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (0.92x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
54%
1.84
21%
4.84
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.56
1.41
VVV Venlo xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
12%
8.61
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
3%
34.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.41 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 8D 21L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VVV Venlo's form line: 16W 6D 18L from 40 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for VVV Venlo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.35 for VVV Venlo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 6W 4D 9L from 19 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.48 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
VVV Venlo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 16W 6D 18L in their last 40 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or VVV Venlo away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.47 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and VVV Venlo?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, VVV Venlo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when VVV Venlo 1-3 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and VVV Venlo?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 74%, VVV Venlo 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for FC Volendam and 58% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play VVV Venlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of FC Volendam's games and 53% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of FC Volendam's matches and 58% of VVV Venlo's.
Do FC Volendam and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.