FC Volendam 2-2 Roda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Roda at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Volendam and Roda meet at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Monday 13 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC Volendam (all games): 2W 2D 1L across 5 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Roda have collected 1.40 PPG across 5 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 1D 2L. Last five: W L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Roda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Roda — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 60% and Roda 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 80% | Roda 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.79 xG and Roda 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.160 / defence 1.162 | Roda attack 1.243 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.390. Roda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Roda have an above-average attack strength of 1.243 — the away xG of 2.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 5 FC Volendam games / 5 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 35% | Draw 21% | Roda 44%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.86 | Draw 4.76 | Roda 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 60% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 35% | Draw 21% | Roda 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG FC Volendam 1.79 / Roda 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.160 / def 1.162 | Roda attack 1.243 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Roda (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Roda xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Roda kick off?
FC Volendam vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Roda?
FC Volendam 2 - 2 Roda.
Where is FC Volendam vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Roda part of?
FC Volendam vs Roda is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 35% chance of winning, Roda a 44% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both FC Volendam and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Roda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Volendam and Roda in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Roda (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Roda's attack (1.24x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 2.01.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
35%
2.84
21%
4.72
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.80
2.01
Roda xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.59
Clean Sheet
13%
7.44
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
5%
21.15
7%
13.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for FC Volendam and 2.01 for Roda, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Volendam come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 2D 1L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.40 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 2.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Roda in 60%.
Defensively: FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Roda in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Roda in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Roda have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have FC Volendam or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Roda in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC Volendam
3
Draws
0
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Roda?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 1, Roda have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when FC Volendam 3-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Roda?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 60%, Roda 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for FC Volendam and 80% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Roda in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC Volendam's games and 60% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of FC Volendam's matches and 80% of Roda's.
Do FC Volendam and Roda tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Roda in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam and Roda share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 5, as FC Volendam and Roda drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.79 xG and Roda 2.01 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.16 / defence 1.16 against Roda attack 1.24 / defence 1.23, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 35% | Draw 21% | Roda 44%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 80%, Roda 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Roda's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.60 PPG, Roda 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Volendam shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.