FC Volendam 3-2 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Jong PSV U21 travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 December 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Volendam have posted 6W 2D 1L at Kras Stadion — 2.22 PPG. They are averaging 2.56 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 2W 2D 4L from 8 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Volendam are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Jong PSV U21 in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 67% and Jong PSV U21 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 72% | Jong PSV U21 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.32 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.373 / defence 1.064 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.838 / defence 1.406. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.549. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.373 — their λ of 2.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.406 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 FC Volendam games / 18 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 58% | Draw 20% | Jong PSV U21 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | Jong PSV U21 4.55. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 67% | Jong PSV U21 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 58% | Draw 20% | Jong PSV U21 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG FC Volendam 2.32 / Jong PSV U21 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.373 / def 1.064 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.838 / def 1.406 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.549 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Jong PSV U21 xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21?
FC Volendam 3 - 2 Jong PSV U21.
Where is FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 58% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 22% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21 in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (1.37) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 2.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
58%
1.71
20%
5.12
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.70
1.38
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.71
58%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
10%
10.15
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
2%
45.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.38 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam come into this having played 18 games, going 11W 6D 1L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong PSV U21 sit at 1.22 PPG from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Volendam's home form reads 6W 2D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong PSV U21 have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 2.44 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.50 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 11W 6D 1L in their last 18 games (2.17 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 6W 4D 8L in their last 18 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.50 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Jong PSV U21 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jong PSV U21 in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC Volendam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2025, when FC Volendam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
1
Draws
0
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Jong PSV U21 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when FC Volendam 4-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 62%, Jong PSV U21 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for FC Volendam and 62% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Jong PSV U21 in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC Volendam's games and 62% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of FC Volendam's matches and 62% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do FC Volendam and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out Jong PSV U21 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Jong PSV U21 3-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.32 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.38 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.37 / defence 1.06 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.84 / defence 1.41, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 58% | Draw 20% | Jong PSV U21 22%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 72%, Jong PSV U21 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.