FC Volendam 3-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours FC Volendam (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Volendam face Helmond Sport.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Volendam and Helmond Sport meet at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Volendam have posted 8W 0D 2L at Kras Stadion — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Helmond Sport (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in FC Volendam's favour (2.20 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Helmond Sport in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FC Volendam, 0 for Helmond Sport and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 3–2 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Helmond Sport — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 66% and Helmond Sport 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 72% | Helmond Sport 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.25 xG and Helmond Sport 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.224 / defence 0.910 | Helmond Sport attack 0.886 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.308. Data: 27 FC Volendam games / 65 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 64% | Draw 20% | Helmond Sport 16%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Helmond Sport 6.25. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 60% | Helmond Sport 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 64% | Draw 20% | Helmond Sport 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Volendam 2.25 / Helmond Sport 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.224 / def 0.910 | Helmond Sport attack 0.886 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Helmond Sport xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport kick off?
FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
FC Volendam 3 - 1 Helmond Sport.
Where is FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport part of?
FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 64% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Volendam and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Helmond Sport?
Record (3 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 1 | Helmond Sport 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Helmond Sport in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.22x the league average against Helmond Sport's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Helmond Sport's attack (0.89x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
64%
1.56
20%
4.97
16%
6.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.31
1.05
Helmond Sport xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
6.27
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
10%
9.54
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
2%
59.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.05 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 21W 11D 29L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport's form line: 23W 15D 23L from 61 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.38 for Helmond Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.37 PPG from 30 outings (13W 2D 15L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 9W 7D 14L from 30 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.39 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Helmond Sport in 61%.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 21W 11D 29L in their last 61 games (1.21 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 23W 15D 23L in their last 61 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Helmond Sport away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.37 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
FC Volendam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 4-1 on 25 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
1
Draws
0
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Helmond Sport?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Helmond Sport have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when FC Volendam 3-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Helmond Sport?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 50%, Helmond Sport 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for FC Volendam and 60% for Helmond Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam have failed to score in 27% of games; Helmond Sport in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Helmond Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 57% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Volendam vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC Volendam's matches and 60% of Helmond Sport's.
Do FC Volendam and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Helmond Sport 3-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.25 xG and Helmond Sport 1.05 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.22 / defence 0.91 against Helmond Sport attack 0.89 / defence 1.14, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 64% | Draw 20% | Helmond Sport 16%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 72%, Helmond Sport 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.21 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.