FC Volendam 2-2 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 38%, yet in-form FC Volendam provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Volendam vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kras Stadion plays host to FC Volendam versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 5 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 5W 1D 1L this season (7 games, 2.29 PPG). They are averaging 2.57 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.29 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kras Stadion this season.
Emmen (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 5W 1D 1L from 7 away outings — 2.29 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. FC Volendam's 2.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Emmen's 2.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant games, Emmen in 71%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Emmen — key trading statistics (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 69% versus Emmen 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 77% | Emmen 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.48 xG and Emmen 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.286 / defence 1.179 | Emmen attack 0.876 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.447. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — their λ of 1.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 13 FC Volendam games / 13 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 38% | Draw 24% | Emmen 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Emmen 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 71% | Emmen 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 38% | Draw 24% | Emmen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Volendam 1.48 / Emmen 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.286 / def 1.179 | Emmen attack 0.876 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Emmen xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Emmen kick off?
FC Volendam vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Emmen?
FC Volendam 2 - 2 Emmen.
Where is FC Volendam vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Emmen part of?
FC Volendam vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 38% chance of winning, Emmen a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Volendam and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Emmen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Volendam and Emmen in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Emmen (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.29x the league average against Emmen's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.88x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
38%
2.66
24%
4.10
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.98
1.49
Emmen xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
8%
11.86
9%
11.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.49 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 2.31 PPG on a 9W 3D 1L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen's form line: 8W 1D 4L from 13 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.31 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.92 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 2.29 PPG from 7 outings (5W 1D 1L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 5W 1D 1L from 7 away games — 2.29 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 2.54 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.54 scored and 0.85 conceded. FC Volendam's scoring rate against Emmen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Emmen in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 9W 3D 1L in their last 13 games (2.31 PPG), while Emmen have gone 8W 1D 4L in their last 13 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Emmen away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.29 PPG; Emmen away: 2.29 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Emmen in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 4-1 on 14 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
2
Draws
2
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Emmen?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Emmen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Emmen 1-2 FC Volendam.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for FC Volendam, 71% for Emmen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for FC Volendam and 57% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Volendam's games and 71% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of FC Volendam's matches and 57% of Emmen's.
Do FC Volendam and Emmen tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Emmen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam and Emmen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as FC Volendam and Emmen drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.48 xG and Emmen 1.49 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.29 / defence 1.18 against Emmen attack 0.88 / defence 0.89, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 38% | Draw 24% | Emmen 38%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 77%, Emmen 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Emmen's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 2.31 PPG, Emmen 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.