FC OSS vs Roda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC OSS host Roda at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC OSS at 1.20 PPG versus Roda's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Roda have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters against FC OSS's 2 victories.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with FC OSS winning.
It is worth noting that Roda have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
FC OSS in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games).
Roda in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC OSS 65% and Roda 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 65% | Roda 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.56 xG and Roda 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 1.172 / defence 0.912 | Roda attack 0.629 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Roda's defence strength of 0.716 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 FC OSS games / 48 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 54% | Draw 26% | Roda 20%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Roda 5.00. FC OSS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC OSS at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: FC OSS 90% | Roda 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 54% | Draw 26% | Roda 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG FC OSS 1.56 / Roda 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 1.172 / def 0.912 | Roda attack 0.629 / def 0.716 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Roda xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Roda kick off?
FC OSS vs Roda is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
Where is FC OSS vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Roda part of?
FC OSS vs Roda is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 54% chance of winning, Roda a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both FC OSS and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Roda?
Record (10 meetings): FC OSS 2W | Draws 2 | Roda 6W.
What form are FC OSS and Roda in?
FC OSS (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 1.17x the league average against Roda's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.92
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.40
0.84
Roda xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
4%
23.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for FC OSS and 0.84 for Roda, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC OSS's recent record stands at 15W 11D 23L from 49 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 17W 19D 13L across 49 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 1.14 PPG, Roda on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 10W 3D 11L from 24 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 10W 9D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.39 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Roda in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 15W 11D 23L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Roda have gone 17W 19D 13L in their last 49 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.38 PPG; Roda away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2022, when FC OSS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC OSS
2
Draws
6
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Roda have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Roda 1-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC OSS at 71%, Roda at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for FC OSS and 54% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC OSS's games and 62% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of FC OSS's matches and 54% of Roda's.
Do FC OSS and Roda tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Roda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.