FC OSS 1-2 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees FC Eindhoven travel to Frans Heesen Stadion to take on FC OSS. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 February 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Frans Heesen Stadion this season.
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC OSS 1.50 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC OSS have won 0, FC Eindhoven 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with FC Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC OSS trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 60% versus FC Eindhoven 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 60% | FC Eindhoven 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.17 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.915 / defence 1.109 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.826 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.419. Data: 25 FC OSS games / 25 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 33% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 40%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | FC Eindhoven 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC OSS 70% | FC Eindhoven 20%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 33% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG FC OSS 1.17 / FC Eindhoven 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.915 / def 1.109 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.826 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.30
FC Eindhoven xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 February 2022 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
FC OSS 1 - 2 FC Eindhoven.
Where is FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven part of?
FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 33% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC OSS and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and FC Eindhoven?
Record (1 meetings): FC OSS 0W | Draws 0 | FC Eindhoven 1W.
What form are FC OSS and FC Eindhoven in?
FC OSS (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC OSS's attack rating (0.92) and FC Eindhoven's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
33%
3.01
27%
3.68
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.47
1.30
FC Eindhoven xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
9%
11.05
12%
8.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FC OSS and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.30 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, FC OSS have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 7W 6D 12L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 13W 5D 7L from 25 games, 1.76 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Eindhoven are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (4W 4D 4L).
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 4W 2D 6L from 12 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Eindhoven's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.80 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Eindhoven in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 7W 6D 12L in their last 25 games (1.08 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 13W 5D 7L in their last 25 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC OSS's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.33 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.17 PPG.
Have FC OSS or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC OSS have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC OSS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when FC Eindhoven won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC OSS
1
Draws
5
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 4, FC Eindhoven have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when FC OSS 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 67%, FC Eindhoven 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FC OSS) and 33% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 42%; FC Eindhoven in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of FC OSS's recent matches and 25% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of FC OSS's recent games and 33% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out FC OSS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat FC OSS 1-2 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.17 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.30 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.92 / defence 1.11 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.83 / defence 1.11, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 33% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 40%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 60%, FC Eindhoven 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.