FC OSS 3-3 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC OSS and De Graafschap meet at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Friday 14 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC OSS (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC OSS have posted 3W 1D 6L at Frans Heesen Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
De Graafschap have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
De Graafschap arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: FC OSS 1W, De Graafschap 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC OSS — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 59% versus De Graafschap 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 66% | De Graafschap 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.19 xG and De Graafschap 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.877 / defence 1.399 | De Graafschap attack 1.204 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.779 / away 1.328. De Graafschap's defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. De Graafschap have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 2.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 70 FC OSS games / 70 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 19% | Draw 20% | De Graafschap 61%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 5.26 | Draw 5.00 | De Graafschap 1.64. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 2.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 60% | De Graafschap 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 19% | Draw 20% | De Graafschap 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 62% | xG FC OSS 1.19 / De Graafschap 2.24 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.877 / def 1.399 | De Graafschap attack 1.204 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.779 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
2.24
De Graafschap xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs De Graafschap kick off?
FC OSS vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
FC OSS 3 - 3 De Graafschap.
Where is FC OSS vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs De Graafschap part of?
FC OSS vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 19% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 61% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC OSS and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and De Graafschap?
Record (3 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are FC OSS and De Graafschap in?
FC OSS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.20x) against FC OSS's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 2.24.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
19%
5.17
20%
5.08
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
0 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.43
2.24
De Graafschap xG
5.17
19%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
11%
9.37
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
2%
48.42
19%
5.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are FC OSS and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for FC OSS and 2.24 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC OSS come into this having played 70 games, going 20W 12D 38L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, De Graafschap sit at 1.41 PPG from 70 outings (27W 18D 25L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for FC OSS against 1.41 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC OSS's home form reads 11W 7D 17L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, De Graafschap have taken 1.49 points per game from 35 outings (15W 7D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC OSS are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.49 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: De Graafschap in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 20W 12D 38L in their last 70 games (1.03 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 27W 18D 25L in their last 70 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.14 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.49 PPG.
Have FC OSS or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC OSS have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 4-0 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC OSS
2
Draws
7
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 1, De Graafschap have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when FC OSS 2-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 63%, De Graafschap 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for FC OSS and 66% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of FC OSS's games and 54% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of FC OSS's matches and 66% of De Graafschap's.
Do FC OSS and De Graafschap tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC OSS and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS and De Graafschap finished level at 3-3 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.19 xG and De Graafschap 2.24 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FC OSS beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.88 / defence 1.40 against De Graafschap attack 1.20 / defence 0.76, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 19% | Draw 20% | De Graafschap 61%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 66%, De Graafschap 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.03 PPG, De Graafschap 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.