FC OSS 3-3 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 6 as FC OSS welcome ADO Den Haag to Frans Heesen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 3W 0D 2L from 5 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, ADO Den Haag stand at 3W 0D 2L from 5 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (FC OSS) versus 1.80 (ADO Den Haag). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
FC OSS in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 20% versus ADO Den Haag 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC OSS 60% | ADO Den Haag 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.82 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 1.231 / defence 0.961 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.863 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.386. ADO Den Haag bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing FC OSS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 FC OSS games / 5 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 53% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 24%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | ADO Den Haag 4.17. FC OSS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC OSS at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: FC OSS 20% | ADO Den Haag 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 53% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG FC OSS 1.82 / ADO Den Haag 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 1.231 / def 0.961 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.863 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.15
ADO Den Haag xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 September 2021 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag?
FC OSS 3 - 3 ADO Den Haag.
Where is FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag part of?
FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 53% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC OSS and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and ADO Den Haag?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC OSS and ADO Den Haag in?
FC OSS (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 1.23x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.35
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.97
1.15
ADO Den Haag xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
4%
25.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are FC OSS and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.15 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, FC OSS have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 3W 0D 2L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 1.80 PPG, ADO Den Haag on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. ADO Den Haag's attacking output running into FC OSS's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; ADO Den Haag in 60%.
Defensively: FC OSS have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Early Season
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 games (1.80 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have FC OSS or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC OSS have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2024, when ADO Den Haag won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FC OSS
2
Draws
8
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 0, ADO Den Haag have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when FC OSS 3-4 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 20%, ADO Den Haag 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for FC OSS and 80% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC OSS have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play ADO Den Haag?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of FC OSS's recent matches and 60% of ADO Den Haag's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of FC OSS's matches and 80% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do FC OSS and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC OSS and ADO Den Haag share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as FC OSS and ADO Den Haag drew 3-3 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.82 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.15 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FC OSS beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 1.23 / defence 0.96 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.86 / defence 1.23, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 53% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 24%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 60%, ADO Den Haag 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.80 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC OSS scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.