FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 16 as FC Eindhoven welcome Waalwijk to Jan Louwers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 5W 1D 4L at Jan Louwers Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Waalwijk — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Waalwijk have posted 2W 7D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (FC Eindhoven) versus 1.00 (Waalwijk). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Eindhoven register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Waalwijk in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Eindhoven, 1 for Waalwijk and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Waalwijk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Eindhoven 50% and Waalwijk 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Eindhoven 64% | Waalwijk 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.53 xG and Waalwijk 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.942 / defence 1.103 | Waalwijk attack 0.927 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 FC Eindhoven games / 42 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 43%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Waalwijk 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 60% | Waalwijk 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.53 / Waalwijk 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.942 / def 1.103 | Waalwijk attack 0.927 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Waalwijk xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk is scheduled to kick off at 15:30 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 34% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk?
Record (2 meetings): FC Eindhoven 1W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 0.94x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
34%
2.92
23%
4.34
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.27
1.74
Waalwijk xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
18%
5.68
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
6%
16.61
9%
10.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.74 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, FC Eindhoven have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 15W 5D 22L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waalwijk's form line: 14W 16D 12L from 42 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.19 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Eindhoven have posted 1.43 PPG from 21 outings (9W 3D 9L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 6W 10D 5L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.76 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 81%.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 15W 5D 22L in their last 42 games (1.19 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 14W 16D 12L in their last 42 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Waalwijk away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.43 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC Eindhoven
0
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 1, Waalwijk have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Waalwijk 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Eindhoven at 52%, Waalwijk at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Eindhoven and 62% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of FC Eindhoven's games and 81% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 62% of Waalwijk's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.