FC Eindhoven 3-3 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven and Roda meet at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Jan Louwers Stadion, FC Eindhoven have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Roda have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Roda have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Eindhoven lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Eindhoven — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Roda — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 57% versus Roda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 53% | Roda 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.46 xG and Roda 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.245 / defence 0.716 | Roda attack 1.125 / defence 0.701. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.337. Roda's defence strength of 0.701 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. FC Eindhoven's defence rating of 0.716 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 FC Eindhoven games / 45 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 45% | Draw 27% | Roda 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Roda 3.70. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 70% | Roda 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 45% | Draw 27% | Roda 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.46 / Roda 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.245 / def 0.716 | Roda attack 1.125 / def 0.701 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Roda xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Roda kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 September 2022 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
FC Eindhoven 3 - 3 Roda.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Roda part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Roda is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 45% chance of winning, Roda a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Roda?
Record (2 meetings): FC Eindhoven 0W | Draws 1 | Roda 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Roda in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Roda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 1.25x the league average against Roda's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Roda's attack (1.12x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
45%
2.20
27%
3.69
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.54
1.08
Roda xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
6%
15.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.08 for Roda, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 26W 10D 11L from 47 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 10L across 47 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.87 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.72 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 16W 3D 4L from 23 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 10W 8D 5L across 23 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.94 scored and 1.30 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Roda in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 26W 10D 11L in their last 47 games (1.87 PPG), while Roda have gone 22W 15D 10L in their last 47 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Roda away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.22 PPG; Roda away: 1.65 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Roda in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 22 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Eindhoven
5
Draws
3
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 2, Roda have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 61%, Roda 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (FC Eindhoven) and 56% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of FC Eindhoven's games and 56% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 56% of Roda's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Roda tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Roda in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven and Roda share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 7, as FC Eindhoven and Roda drew 3-3 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.46 xG and Roda 1.08 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FC Eindhoven beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Roda outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.25 / defence 0.72 against Roda attack 1.12 / defence 0.70, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 45% | Draw 27% | Roda 27%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 53%, Roda 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Roda's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.87 PPG, Roda 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.