FC Eindhoven 4-0 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jan Louwers Stadion plays host to FC Eindhoven versus Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 14 January 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven at Jan Louwers Stadion this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Jong Utrecht (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. FC Eindhoven's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Jong Utrecht's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Eindhoven register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Jong Utrecht in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: FC Eindhoven 1W, Jong Utrecht 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 6–0 with FC Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 48% versus Jong Utrecht 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 43% | Jong Utrecht 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.53 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.088 / defence 0.967 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.829 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.543. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing FC Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 FC Eindhoven games / 21 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 44% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 31%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Jong Utrecht 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 70% | Jong Utrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 44% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.53 / Jong Utrecht 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.088 / def 0.967 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.829 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.543 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Jong Utrecht xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 January 2022 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht?
FC Eindhoven 4 - 0 Jong Utrecht.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 44% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong Utrecht?
Record (1 meetings): FC Eindhoven 1W | Draws 0 | Jong Utrecht 0W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong Utrecht in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 1.09x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.83x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
44%
2.28
25%
3.95
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.76
1.24
Jong Utrecht xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
7%
14.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.9 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.24 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 21 games, going 9W 5D 7L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 1.05 PPG from 21 outings (6W 4D 11L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 6W 3D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — FC Eindhoven are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 1.30 points per game from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.14 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 9W 5D 7L in their last 21 games (1.52 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 6W 4D 11L in their last 21 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Jong Utrecht away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.10 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 1.30 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or Jong Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jong Utrecht in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Eindhoven won 0-6 on 5 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
FC Eindhoven
0
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 8, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Jong Utrecht 3-0 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Jong Utrecht?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for FC Eindhoven, 80% for Jong Utrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC Eindhoven and 70% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of FC Eindhoven's games and 80% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 70% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Eindhoven run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Jong Utrecht 4-0 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.53 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.24 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC Eindhoven beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Utrecht landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.83 / defence 1.21, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 44% | Draw 25% | Jong Utrecht 31%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 43%, Jong Utrecht 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.