FC Eindhoven 0-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees De Graafschap travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 January 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Jan Louwers Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Eindhoven 1.30 PPG, De Graafschap 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for FC Eindhoven, 2 for De Graafschap and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 57% versus De Graafschap 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 47% | De Graafschap 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.61 xG and De Graafschap 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.865 / defence 0.999 | De Graafschap attack 1.138 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.433. Data: 58 FC Eindhoven games / 58 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 37% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | De Graafschap 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 70% | De Graafschap 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 37% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.61 / De Graafschap 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.865 / def 0.999 | De Graafschap attack 1.138 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.63
De Graafschap xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 January 2024 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
FC Eindhoven 0 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap part of?
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 37% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
Record (5 meetings): FC Eindhoven 2W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (0.86) and De Graafschap's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
37%
2.72
26%
3.87
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.24
1.63
De Graafschap xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
7%
13.86
7%
13.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.63 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 22W 19D 17L from 58 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 23L across 58 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.47 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 12W 10D 7L from 29 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 11W 5D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.60 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 22W 19D 17L in their last 58 games (1.47 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 25W 10D 23L in their last 58 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or De Graafschap away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.59 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Eindhoven
2
Draws
5
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 3, De Graafschap have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 55%, De Graafschap 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (FC Eindhoven) and 72% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of FC Eindhoven's games and 62% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 72% of De Graafschap's.
Do FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out FC Eindhoven 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat FC Eindhoven 0-1 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.61 xG and De Graafschap 1.63 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Eindhoven fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against De Graafschap attack 1.14 / defence 1.15, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 37% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 37%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 47%, De Graafschap 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.47 PPG, De Graafschap 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.