FC Eindhoven 1-1 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jan Louwers Stadion plays host to FC Eindhoven versus ADO Den Haag in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Monday 14 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 7W 2D 1L at Jan Louwers Stadion — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
ADO Den Haag have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in FC Eindhoven's favour (2.60 vs 1.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
FC Eindhoven — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
ADO Den Haag — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 48% versus ADO Den Haag 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 52% | ADO Den Haag 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 2.65 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.365 / defence 0.790 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.090 / defence 1.541. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.439. FC Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — their λ of 2.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. ADO Den Haag bring a strong defensive rating of 1.541 — this is suppressing FC Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FC Eindhoven's defence rating of 0.790 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 29 FC Eindhoven games / 27 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 67% | Draw 17% | ADO Den Haag 16%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.49 | Draw 5.88 | ADO Den Haag 6.25. The model has a clear lean to FC Eindhoven (67%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.65 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 60% | ADO Den Haag 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 14 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 67% | Draw 17% | ADO Den Haag 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 66% | xG FC Eindhoven 2.65 / ADO Den Haag 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.365 / def 0.790 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.090 / def 1.541 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.65
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.24
ADO Den Haag xG
66%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 14 March 2022 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 1 ADO Den Haag.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag part of?
FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 67% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 16% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 1.36x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 2.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ADO Den Haag's attack (1.09x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 29/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
67%
1.49
17%
5.78
16%
6.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.65
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.89
1.24
ADO Den Haag xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.78
17%
Draw
6.45
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
7%
14.17
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
1%
91.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 2.65 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.24 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, FC Eindhoven have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 16W 4D 7L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 17W 3D 7L from 27 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 2.00 for ADO Den Haag. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Eindhoven have posted 2.46 PPG from 13 outings (10W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.93 PPG overall — FC Eindhoven are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 7W 2D 4L from 13 away games — 1.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.19 scored and 1.48 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Defensively: FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 16W 4D 7L in their last 27 games (1.93 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 17W 3D 7L in their last 27 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or ADO Den Haag away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.46 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.77 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
ADO Den Haag go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ADO Den Haag won 0-4 on 1 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ADO Den Haag — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FC Eindhoven
3
Draws
7
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 0, ADO Den Haag have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when ADO Den Haag 4-0 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 54%, ADO Den Haag 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Eindhoven) and 62% (ADO Den Haag). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; ADO Den Haag in 31%; ADO Den Haag in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play ADO Den Haag?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 46% of ADO Den Haag's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 62% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 27, as FC Eindhoven and ADO Den Haag drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.65 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.24 xG, a combined 3.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.36 / defence 0.79 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.09 / defence 1.54, drawn from 29/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 67% | Draw 17% | ADO Den Haag 16%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 52%, ADO Den Haag 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.93 PPG, ADO Den Haag 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.