Emmen 0-3 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 47%, yet in-form Willem II provide a compelling counter-argument — this Emmen vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Emmen host Willem II at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Emmen — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at De Oude Meerdijk this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Emmen are significantly better at De Oude Meerdijk than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Willem II away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Willem II are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Emmen have won 1, Willem II 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Emmen in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Willem II in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 55% versus Willem II 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 61% | Willem II 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.77 xG and Willem II 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.091 / defence 1.024 | Willem II attack 0.885 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.455. Data: 64 Emmen games / 28 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 47% | Draw 25% | Willem II 28%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Willem II 3.57. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Willem II (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 70% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 47% | Draw 25% | Willem II 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Emmen 1.77 / Willem II 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.091 / def 1.024 | Willem II attack 0.885 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Emmen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Willem II xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Willem II kick off?
Emmen vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 February 2026 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Willem II?
Emmen 0 - 3 Willem II.
Where is Emmen vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Willem II part of?
Emmen vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 47% chance of winning, Willem II a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Emmen and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Willem II?
Record (3 meetings): Emmen 1W | Draws 1 | Willem II 1W.
What form are Emmen and Willem II in?
Emmen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Willem II (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Emmen's attack rating (1.09) and Willem II's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
47%
2.12
25%
4.01
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.09
1.32
Willem II xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
5%
21.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Emmen and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Emmen and 1.32 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Emmen come into this having played 64 games, going 25W 11D 28L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.08 PPG from 64 outings (18W 15D 31L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.34 PPG, Willem II on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Emmen's home form reads 12W 8D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 1.03 points per game from 31 outings (8W 8D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.19 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 61%.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Willem II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Willem II in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 25W 11D 28L in their last 64 games (1.34 PPG), while Willem II have gone 18W 15D 31L in their last 64 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Willem II away?
Emmen's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.42 PPG; Willem II away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Willem II won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Emmen
1
Draws
2
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, Emmen have won 1, Willem II have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Emmen 0-3 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 64%, Willem II 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Emmen) and 52% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Emmen's games and 61% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Emmen's matches and 52% of Willem II's.
Do Emmen and Willem II tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Willem II in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Emmen 0-3 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.77 xG and Willem II 1.32 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Willem II outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.09 / defence 1.02 against Willem II attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 64/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 47% | Draw 25% | Willem II 28%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 61%, Willem II 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Willem II's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.34 PPG, Willem II 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.