Emmen 3-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Emmen and Jong AZ meet at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Friday 21 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Emmen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jong AZ (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Emmen against 1.30 for Jong AZ. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Emmen, 2 for Jong AZ and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2026, ended 3–2 with Emmen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Jong AZ half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 60% versus Jong AZ 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Emmen 62% | Jong AZ 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.74 xG and Jong AZ 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.931 / defence 0.834 | Jong AZ attack 1.321 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.651. Jong AZ have an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Emmen games / 40 Jong AZ games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Emmen 37% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 41%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.70 | Draw 4.55 | Jong AZ 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.56 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 40% | Jong AZ 60%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 21 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 37% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Emmen 1.74 / Jong AZ 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.931 / def 0.834 | Jong AZ attack 1.321 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.651 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Jong AZ xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Jong AZ kick off?
Emmen vs Jong AZ kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 21 August 2026 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Emmen 3 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is Emmen vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Jong AZ part of?
Emmen vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 37% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 41% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Emmen and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong AZ?
Record (8 meetings): Emmen 4W | Draws 2 | Jong AZ 2W.
What form are Emmen and Jong AZ in?
Emmen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Emmen's attack rating (0.93) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (1.32x) against Emmen's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
37%
2.68
22%
4.53
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.56
1.82
Jong AZ xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
16%
6.15
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
6%
16.47
7%
14.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Emmen and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Emmen and 1.82 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Emmen's recent record stands at 14W 9D 17L from 40 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 13W 4D 23L across 40 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Emmen against 1.08 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 9W 5D 6L from 20 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 9W 2D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Emmen are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.65 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Emmen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 14W 9D 17L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 13W 4D 23L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Jong AZ away?
Emmen's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.60 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Emmen have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 3-0 on 8 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Emmen
2
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong AZ?
From 9 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, Jong AZ have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Emmen 3-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Jong AZ?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Emmen, 70% for Jong AZ — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Emmen and 80% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 65% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Emmen's games and 70% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Emmen's matches and 80% of Jong AZ's.
Do Emmen and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong AZ 3-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.74 xG and Jong AZ 1.82 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.93 / defence 0.83 against Jong AZ attack 1.32 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 37% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 41%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 62%, Jong AZ 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.27 PPG, Jong AZ 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.