Dordrecht 1-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and Waalwijk meet at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Monday 20 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Waalwijk (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 49% versus Waalwijk 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 62% | Waalwijk 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.65 xG and Waalwijk 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.919 / defence 0.741 | Waalwijk attack 1.005 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.825 / away 1.379. Dordrecht's defence rating of 0.741 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Dordrecht games / 11 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 52% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 24%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Waalwijk 4.17. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 50% | Waalwijk 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 20 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 52% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Dordrecht 1.65 / Waalwijk 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.919 / def 0.741 | Waalwijk attack 1.005 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.825 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Waalwijk xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Waalwijk kick off?
Dordrecht vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 20 October 2025 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Waalwijk?
Dordrecht 1 - 2 Waalwijk.
Where is Dordrecht vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Waalwijk part of?
Dordrecht vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 52% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dordrecht and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Waalwijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dordrecht and Waalwijk in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (1.00x) against Dordrecht's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.08
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.68
1.03
Waalwijk xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
5%
22.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.03 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dordrecht come into this having played 45 games, going 23W 10D 12L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 0.89 PPG from 45 outings (10W 10D 25L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Dordrecht's home form reads 14W 7D 1L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Dordrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.64 points per game from 22 outings (3W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dordrecht are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.38 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 62%.
Defensively: Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 23W 10D 12L in their last 45 games (1.76 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 10W 10D 25L in their last 45 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Waalwijk away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.23 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Dordrecht
2
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Waalwijk?
From 3 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 0, Waalwijk have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Waalwijk 2-2 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 59%, Waalwijk 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Dordrecht and 64% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Waalwijk in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Dordrecht's games and 68% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Dordrecht's matches and 64% of Waalwijk's.
Do Dordrecht and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Waalwijk defy the odds to beat Dordrecht 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Dordrecht 1-2 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.65 xG and Waalwijk 1.03 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.92 / defence 0.74 against Waalwijk attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 52% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 24%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Waalwijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 62%, Waalwijk 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Waalwijk's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.