Dordrecht 0-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Helmond Sport travel to Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion to take on Dordrecht. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 October 2021, 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 1W 3D 5L from 9 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion this season: 0W 2D 2L from 4 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have recorded 3W 0D 6L from 9 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Helmond Sport have posted 0W 0D 4L from 4 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dordrecht at 0.67 PPG versus Helmond Sport's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Helmond Sport in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 67% versus Helmond Sport 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 67% | Helmond Sport 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.27 xG and Helmond Sport 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.684 / defence 1.166 | Helmond Sport attack 0.737 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.380. Dordrecht's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Helmond Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Dordrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Dordrecht games / 9 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 39% | Draw 27% | Helmond Sport 34%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Helmond Sport 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 50% | Helmond Sport 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Oct 2021, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 39% | Draw 27% | Helmond Sport 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Dordrecht 1.27 / Helmond Sport 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.684 / def 1.166 | Helmond Sport attack 0.737 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Helmond Sport xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 10 October 2021 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Dordrecht 0 - 1 Helmond Sport.
Where is Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport part of?
Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 39% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dordrecht and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Helmond Sport?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dordrecht and Helmond Sport in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.78 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Helmond Sport (all comps): 3W-0D-6L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (0.68) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
39%
2.59
27%
3.67
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.46
1.19
Helmond Sport xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.19 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 1W 3D 5L from 9 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 6L across 9 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 0.67 PPG, Helmond Sport on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Helmond Sport's away record stands at 0W 0D 4L across 4 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Helmond Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.11 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 games (0.67 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 3W 0D 6L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Helmond Sport away?
Dordrecht's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 0.50 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Dordrecht have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Dordrecht won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Dordrecht
2
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 6, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Dordrecht 3-0 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Helmond Sport?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Helmond Sport see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 50%, Helmond Sport 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Dordrecht) and 50% (Helmond Sport).
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 50% of games; Helmond Sport in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Helmond Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 50% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Dordrecht's recent games and 50% of Helmond Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dordrecht and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Helmond Sport defy the odds to beat Dordrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat Dordrecht 0-1 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.27 xG and Helmond Sport 1.19 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.68 / defence 1.17 against Helmond Sport attack 0.74 / defence 1.39, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 39% | Draw 27% | Helmond Sport 34%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Helmond Sport win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 67%, Helmond Sport 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 0.67 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helmond Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.