Dordrecht 4-0 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Helmond Sport travel to M-Scores Stadion to take on Dordrecht. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024, 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht at M-Scores Stadion this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Helmond Sport have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dordrecht at 1.80 PPG versus Helmond Sport's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Dordrecht have won 2, Helmond Sport 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2024, ended 2–0 with Dordrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Helmond Sport in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 65% and Helmond Sport 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 57% | Helmond Sport 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.51 xG and Helmond Sport 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.216 / defence 0.858 | Helmond Sport attack 1.164 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.417. Data: 51 Dordrecht games / 51 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 40% | Draw 25% | Helmond Sport 35%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Helmond Sport 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 70% | Helmond Sport 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 40% | Draw 25% | Helmond Sport 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Dordrecht 1.51 / Helmond Sport 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.216 / def 0.858 | Helmond Sport attack 1.164 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Helmond Sport xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Dordrecht 4 - 0 Helmond Sport.
Where is Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport part of?
Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 40% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dordrecht and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Helmond Sport?
Record (6 meetings): Dordrecht 2W | Draws 2 | Helmond Sport 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and Helmond Sport in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Helmond Sport (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (1.22) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
40%
2.52
25%
3.97
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.93
1.41
Helmond Sport xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
10%
10.38
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.41 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 24W 19D 8L from 51 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport, meanwhile, have gone 22W 12D 17L across 51 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.78 PPG, Helmond Sport on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 14W 9D 2L from 25 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Helmond Sport's away record stands at 9W 5D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.45 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Helmond Sport in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 24W 19D 8L in their last 51 games (1.78 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 22W 12D 17L in their last 51 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Helmond Sport away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.04 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Helmond Sport been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Helmond Sport in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Dordrecht have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Dordrecht won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Dordrecht
2
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 6, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Dordrecht 3-0 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Helmond Sport?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 56%, Helmond Sport 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Dordrecht) and 60% (Helmond Sport). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Helmond Sport in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Helmond Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Dordrecht's games and 56% of Helmond Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Dordrecht's matches and 60% of Helmond Sport's.
Do Dordrecht and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Helmond Sport 4-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.51 xG and Helmond Sport 1.41 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Helmond Sport landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.22 / defence 0.86 against Helmond Sport attack 1.16 / defence 0.84, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 40% | Draw 25% | Helmond Sport 35%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 57%, Helmond Sport 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.78 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.