Dordrecht 0-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 33 as Dordrecht welcome FC Eindhoven to Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dordrecht have posted 5W 3D 2L at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Eindhoven away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Form points away from home here. FC Eindhoven's 2.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Dordrecht's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Dordrecht have won 0, FC Eindhoven 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2021, ended 1–5 with FC Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 69% and FC Eindhoven 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 75% | FC Eindhoven 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.46 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.102 / defence 1.191 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.004 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.435. Data: 32 Dordrecht games / 32 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 32% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 43%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | FC Eindhoven 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 70% | FC Eindhoven 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 32% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Dordrecht 1.46 / FC Eindhoven 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.102 / def 1.191 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.004 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.72
FC Eindhoven xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 April 2022 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Dordrecht 0 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 32% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven?
Record (1 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 0 | FC Eindhoven 1W.
What form are Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 1.10x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
32%
3.09
24%
4.12
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.17
1.72
FC Eindhoven xG
3.09
32%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
18%
5.56
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
6%
17.20
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.72 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 8W 8D 16L from 32 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
FC Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 17W 7D 8L across 32 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Eindhoven by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dordrecht heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 5W 6D 5L from 16 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Eindhoven's away record stands at 7W 3D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.88 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 8W 8D 16L in their last 32 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 17W 7D 8L in their last 32 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.31 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2021, when FC Eindhoven won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dordrecht
6
Draws
3
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 1, FC Eindhoven have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Dordrecht 3-4 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 62%, FC Eindhoven 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Dordrecht) and 50% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 31%; FC Eindhoven in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 44% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Dordrecht's recent games and 50% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Dordrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Dordrecht 0-1 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.46 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.72 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.10 / defence 1.19 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.00 / defence 1.05, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 32% | Draw 24% | FC Eindhoven 43%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 75%, FC Eindhoven 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.