Dordrecht 3-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
M-Scores Stadion plays host to Dordrecht versus Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Friday 23 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Dordrecht (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht at M-Scores Stadion this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Den Bosch have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Dordrecht, 1.20 for Den Bosch — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Dordrecht register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Den Bosch in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across 9 previous meetings, Dordrecht are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 2 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.4 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Dordrecht and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 4.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 53% versus Den Bosch 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 58% | Den Bosch 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.72 xG and Den Bosch 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.867 / defence 1.022 | Den Bosch attack 0.975 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.736 / away 1.540. Data: 60 Dordrecht games / 60 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 42% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 34%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Den Bosch 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 70% | Den Bosch 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 42% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Dordrecht 1.72 / Den Bosch 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.867 / def 1.022 | Den Bosch attack 0.975 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.736 / away 1.540 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Den Bosch xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Den Bosch kick off?
Dordrecht vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 January 2026 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Dordrecht 3 - 2 Den Bosch.
Where is Dordrecht vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Den Bosch part of?
Dordrecht vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 42% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Dordrecht and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Den Bosch?
Record (9 meetings): Dordrecht 5W | Draws 2 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and Den Bosch in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 0.87x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.97x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
42%
2.38
24%
4.16
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.26
1.53
Den Bosch xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
9%
11.06
6%
16.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.53 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 28W 16D 20L from 64 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 24L across 64 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.44 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 16W 10D 5L from 31 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 10W 5D 16L across 31 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dordrecht are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.52 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 28W 16D 20L in their last 64 games (1.56 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 26W 14D 24L in their last 64 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Den Bosch away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.87 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dordrecht won 5-1 on 27 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Dordrecht
2
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 6, Den Bosch have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Dordrecht 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Den Bosch?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 61%, Den Bosch 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Dordrecht and 71% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Den Bosch in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Dordrecht's games and 55% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Dordrecht's matches and 71% of Den Bosch's.
Do Dordrecht and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Den Bosch 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Den Bosch 3-2 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.72 xG and Den Bosch 1.53 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Den Bosch attack 0.97 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 42% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 34%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 58%, Den Bosch 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Den Bosch's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.56 PPG, Den Bosch 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.