Dordrecht 2-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Cambuur travel to M-Scores Stadion to take on Dordrecht. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 August 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dordrecht — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Dordrecht are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Dordrecht, 0 for Cambuur and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 68% and Cambuur 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 58% | Cambuur 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.32 xG and Cambuur 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.018 / defence 0.881 | Cambuur attack 0.837 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.289. Data: 41 Dordrecht games / 41 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 42% | Draw 34% | Cambuur 24%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Cambuur 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 40% | Cambuur 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 42% | Draw 34% | Cambuur 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Dordrecht 1.32 / Cambuur 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.018 / def 0.881 | Cambuur attack 0.837 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Cambuur xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Cambuur kick off?
Dordrecht vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 August 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Cambuur?
Dordrecht 2 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is Dordrecht vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Cambuur part of?
Dordrecht vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 42% chance of winning, Cambuur a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dordrecht and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Cambuur?
Record (2 meetings): Dordrecht 1W | Draws 1 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are Dordrecht and Cambuur in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Cambuur (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (1.02) and Cambuur's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
42%
2.38
34%
2.92
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.27
0.95
Cambuur xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
6%
15.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Dordrecht and 0.95 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dordrecht come into this having played 41 games, going 19W 16D 6L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.22 PPG from 41 outings (14W 8D 19L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Cambuur — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Dordrecht's home form reads 11W 7D 2L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.15 points per game from 20 outings (7W 2D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.76 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Cambuur in 73%.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 19W 16D 6L in their last 41 games (1.78 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 14W 8D 19L in their last 41 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Cambuur away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.00 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2023, when Dordrecht won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Dordrecht
2
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 3, Cambuur have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Cambuur 1-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Cambuur?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 55%, Cambuur 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dordrecht) and 65% (Cambuur). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Dordrecht's games and 65% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Dordrecht's matches and 65% of Cambuur's.
Do Dordrecht and Cambuur tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Cambuur 2-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.32 xG and Cambuur 0.95 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cambuur landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against Cambuur attack 0.84 / defence 0.88, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 42% | Draw 34% | Cambuur 24%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 58%, Cambuur 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.