Den Bosch 0-1 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 20 as Den Bosch welcome VVV Venlo to De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Den Bosch have posted 5W 3D 2L at De Vliert — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VVV Venlo stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Den Bosch at 1.50 PPG versus VVV Venlo's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, VVV Venlo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Den Bosch, 4 for VVV Venlo and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Den Bosch winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
VVV Venlo trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 53% versus VVV Venlo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 61% | VVV Venlo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.16 xG and VVV Venlo 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.254 / defence 1.090 | VVV Venlo attack 0.943 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.444. Den Bosch carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 2.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 Den Bosch games / 57 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 53% | Draw 21% | VVV Venlo 26%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | VVV Venlo 3.85. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 70% | VVV Venlo 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 12 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 53% | Draw 21% | VVV Venlo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Den Bosch 2.16 / VVV Venlo 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.254 / def 1.090 | VVV Venlo attack 0.943 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.48
VVV Venlo xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 December 2025 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Den Bosch 0 - 1 VVV Venlo.
Where is Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo part of?
Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 53% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Den Bosch and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and VVV Venlo?
Record (9 meetings): Den Bosch 3W | Draws 2 | VVV Venlo 4W.
What form are Den Bosch and VVV Venlo in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 1.25x the league average against VVV Venlo's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 2.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
53%
1.90
21%
4.69
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.64
1.48
VVV Venlo xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
12%
8.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
3%
33.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.48 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 23W 13D 21L from 57 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VVV Venlo, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 30L across 57 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.44 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 14W 8D 6L from 28 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VVV Venlo's away record stands at 10W 3D 15L across 28 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.19 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 23W 13D 21L in their last 57 games (1.44 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 19W 8D 30L in their last 57 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or VVV Venlo away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.79 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or VVV Venlo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, VVV Venlo in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2023, when VVV Venlo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
2
Draws
5
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, VVV Venlo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Den Bosch 0-1 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 50%, VVV Venlo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Den Bosch and 71% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; VVV Venlo in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 50% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Den Bosch's matches and 71% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Den Bosch and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VVV Venlo defy the odds to beat Den Bosch 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat Den Bosch 0-1 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 2.16 xG and VVV Venlo 1.48 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Den Bosch fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.25 / defence 1.09 against VVV Venlo attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 53% | Draw 21% | VVV Venlo 26%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual VVV Venlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 61%, VVV Venlo 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.44 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.