Den Bosch 1-4 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Den Bosch at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Vitesse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Vitesse travel to De Vliert to take on Den Bosch. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch's home record at De Vliert: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Vitesse have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Vitesse have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Vitesse have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Vitesse's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Den Bosch's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Den Bosch, 1 for Vitesse and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2025, ended 2–0 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 78% and Vitesse 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 71% | Vitesse 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.79 xG and Vitesse 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.219 / defence 0.953 | Vitesse attack 1.055 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.702 / away 1.671. Data: 41 Den Bosch games / 41 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 41% | Draw 22% | Vitesse 37%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.44 | Draw 4.55 | Vitesse 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Den Bosch dominate the H2H record, yet Vitesse are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vitesse (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 90% | Vitesse 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 28 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 41% | Draw 22% | Vitesse 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Den Bosch 1.79 / Vitesse 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.219 / def 0.953 | Vitesse attack 1.055 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.702 / away 1.671 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Vitesse xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Vitesse kick off?
Den Bosch vs Vitesse kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 28 August 2026 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Vitesse?
Den Bosch 1 - 4 Vitesse.
Where is Den Bosch vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Vitesse part of?
Den Bosch vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 41% chance of winning, Vitesse a 37% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Den Bosch and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Vitesse?
Record (4 meetings): Den Bosch 3W | Draws 0 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and Vitesse in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Vitesse (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (1.22) and Vitesse's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
41%
2.43
22%
4.48
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.47
1.68
Vitesse xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
8%
13.06
6%
16.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.68 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 13W 10D 18L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vitesse's form line: 16W 12D 13L from 41 games, 1.46 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Vitesse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.20 PPG, Vitesse on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (7W 7D 6L).
On the road, Vitesse have gone 9W 5D 6L from 20 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.66 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Vitesse in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
Vitesse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 13W 10D 18L in their last 41 games (1.20 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 16W 12D 13L in their last 41 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Vitesse away?
Vitesse's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.40 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2026, when Vitesse won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
0
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Vitesse?
From 5 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, Vitesse have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Den Bosch 1-4 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Vitesse?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Den Bosch at 80%, Vitesse at 55%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Den Bosch and 65% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Den Bosch's games and 55% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Den Bosch's matches and 65% of Vitesse's.
Do Den Bosch and Vitesse tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vitesse run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Den Bosch 1-4 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.79 xG and Vitesse 1.68 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Vitesse outscored their 1.68 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.22 / defence 0.95 against Vitesse attack 1.05 / defence 0.86, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 41% | Draw 22% | Vitesse 37%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Vitesse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 71%, Vitesse 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.20 PPG, Vitesse 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.