Den Bosch 1-2 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Den Bosch host Heracles at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 30 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch at Stadion De Vliert this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Den Bosch are significantly better at Stadion De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Heracles — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Heracles are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Heracles in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 48% versus Heracles 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 59% | Heracles 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.57 xG and Heracles 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.014 / defence 1.116 | Heracles attack 1.149 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.373. Data: 46 Den Bosch games / 8 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 34% | Draw 24% | Heracles 42%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Heracles 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. This conflicts with form data: Den Bosch 60% | Heracles 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 30 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 34% | Draw 24% | Heracles 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Den Bosch 1.57 / Heracles 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.014 / def 1.116 | Heracles attack 1.149 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Heracles (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Heracles xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Heracles kick off?
Den Bosch vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 September 2022 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Heracles?
Den Bosch 1 - 2 Heracles.
Where is Den Bosch vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Heracles part of?
Den Bosch vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 34% chance of winning, Heracles a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Den Bosch and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Heracles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Den Bosch and Heracles in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Heracles (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Den Bosch's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Heracles's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
34%
2.93
24%
4.15
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.33
1.76
Heracles xG
2.93
34%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
6%
17.03
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.76 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 14W 5D 25L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles's form line: 15W 8D 21L from 44 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.07 PPG, Heracles on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (10W 1D 11L).
On the road, Heracles have gone 5W 2D 15L from 22 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.27 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Heracles in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 14W 5D 25L in their last 44 games (1.07 PPG), while Heracles have gone 15W 8D 21L in their last 44 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Heracles away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.41 PPG; Heracles away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and Heracles runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Den Bosch
0
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Heracles?
From 2 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 0, Heracles have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 26 March 2023, when Heracles 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 46%, Heracles 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Den Bosch) and 54% (Heracles). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 36% of games; Heracles in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 32% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Den Bosch's matches and 54% of Heracles's.
Do Den Bosch and Heracles tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Heracles in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Heracles edge out Den Bosch 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Den Bosch 1-2 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.57 xG and Heracles 1.76 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.01 / defence 1.12 against Heracles attack 1.15 / defence 0.92, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 34% | Draw 24% | Heracles 42%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 59%, Heracles 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.07 PPG, Heracles 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.