Den Bosch 3-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Volendam (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Den Bosch face FC Volendam.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Den Bosch host FC Volendam at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 31 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Den Bosch have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion De Vliert — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Volendam — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, FC Volendam have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Den Bosch.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2024, ended 2–3 with FC Volendam winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Volendam have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 47% versus FC Volendam 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 56% | FC Volendam 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.49 xG and FC Volendam 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.983 / defence 0.987 | FC Volendam attack 1.237 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.287. FC Volendam have an above-average attack strength of 1.237 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Den Bosch games / 23 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 36% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 40%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | FC Volendam 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 50% | FC Volendam 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 36% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Den Bosch 1.49 / FC Volendam 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.983 / def 0.987 | FC Volendam attack 1.237 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.57
FC Volendam xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs FC Volendam kick off?
Den Bosch vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 31 January 2025 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Den Bosch 3 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is Den Bosch vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs FC Volendam part of?
Den Bosch vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 36% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Den Bosch and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC Volendam?
Record (3 meetings): Den Bosch 0W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 3W.
What form are Den Bosch and FC Volendam in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
36%
2.79
25%
4.05
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.06
1.57
FC Volendam xG
2.79
36%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
7%
13.45
9%
11.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.57 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch come into this having played 57 games, going 18W 15D 24L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 1.19 PPG from 57 outings (19W 11D 27L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.21 PPG, FC Volendam on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Den Bosch's home form reads 8W 10D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.96 points per game from 28 outings (6W 9D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.54 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 65%.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 18W 15D 24L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 19W 11D 27L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or FC Volendam away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.21 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2021, when FC Volendam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Den Bosch
0
Draws
4
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC Volendam?
From 5 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 1, FC Volendam have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when FC Volendam 2-0 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Den Bosch at 57%, FC Volendam at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Den Bosch and 71% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Den Bosch's games and 82% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Den Bosch's matches and 71% of FC Volendam's.
Do Den Bosch and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Den Bosch run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat FC Volendam 3-0 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.49 xG and FC Volendam 1.57 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Volendam landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against FC Volendam attack 1.24 / defence 0.93, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 36% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 40%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 56%, FC Volendam 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.21 PPG, FC Volendam 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.