Den Bosch 1-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and Dordrecht meet at Stadion de Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Den Bosch have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's home record at Stadion de Vliert: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Den Bosch are significantly better at Stadion de Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Dordrecht have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Dordrecht in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Dordrecht, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 2–3 with Dordrecht winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Dordrecht have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 76% and Dordrecht 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 70% | Dordrecht 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.57 xG and Dordrecht 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.046 / defence 1.148 | Dordrecht attack 0.814 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.987 / away 1.506. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Den Bosch's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Den Bosch games / 46 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 63% | Draw 18% | Dordrecht 20%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.59 | Draw 5.56 | Dordrecht 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Den Bosch (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.57 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.98 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 90% | Dordrecht 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion de Vliert • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 63% | Draw 18% | Dordrecht 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 70% | xG Den Bosch 2.57 / Dordrecht 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.046 / def 1.148 | Dordrecht attack 0.814 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.987 / away 1.506 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.57
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Dordrecht xG
70%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Dordrecht kick off?
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 3 October 2026 at Stadion de Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Den Bosch 1 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Den Bosch vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion de Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Dordrecht part of?
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 63% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 20% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Den Bosch and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Dordrecht?
Record (9 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 6W.
What form are Den Bosch and Dordrecht in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 1.05x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.81x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.7%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
63%
1.60
18%
5.59
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.57
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.98
1.41
Dordrecht xG
1.60
63%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.30
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
8%
13.07
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
1%
66.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.41 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Den Bosch come into this having played 46 games, going 14W 10D 22L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.17 PPG from 46 outings (14W 12D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.17 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Den Bosch's home form reads 8W 7D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.00 points per game from 22 outings (5W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Den Bosch are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.30 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 14W 10D 22L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Dordrecht away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.41 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 3 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dordrecht won 5-1 on 27 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
2
Draws
6
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, Dordrecht have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 3 October 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Den Bosch, 73% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Den Bosch and 73% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Den Bosch's games and 73% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Den Bosch's matches and 73% of Dordrecht's.
Do Den Bosch and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion de Vliert, Regular Season - 9, as Den Bosch and Dordrecht drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 2.57 xG and Dordrecht 1.41 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.05 / defence 1.15 against Dordrecht attack 0.81 / defence 1.24, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 63% | Draw 18% | Dordrecht 20%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 70%, Dordrecht 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.13 PPG, Dordrecht 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.