Den Bosch 5-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Vliert plays host to Den Bosch versus Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 21 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Den Bosch have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at De Vliert this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Vliert. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Den Bosch are significantly better at De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Almere City FC (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Den Bosch, 1.10 for Almere City FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Den Bosch 1W, Almere City FC 2W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 53% versus Almere City FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 61% | Almere City FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.90 xG and Almere City FC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.107 / defence 1.084 | Almere City FC attack 0.827 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.468. Data: 53 Den Bosch games / 15 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 51% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Almere City FC 3.85. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 50% | Almere City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 51% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Den Bosch 1.90 / Almere City FC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.107 / def 1.084 | Almere City FC attack 0.827 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Almere City FC xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Almere City FC kick off?
Den Bosch vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 November 2025 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Den Bosch 5 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is Den Bosch vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Almere City FC part of?
Den Bosch vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 51% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Den Bosch and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Almere City FC?
Record (4 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 2W.
What form are Den Bosch and Almere City FC in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 1.11x the league average against Almere City FC's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.83x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
51%
1.95
22%
4.48
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.22
1.32
Almere City FC xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
4%
25.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.32 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 18W 12D 19L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC's form line: 9W 12D 28L from 49 games, 0.80 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Den Bosch are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Almere City FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.58 PPG from 24 outings (10W 8D 6L).
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 4W 5D 15L from 24 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.04 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 18W 12D 19L in their last 49 games (1.35 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 9W 12D 28L in their last 49 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Almere City FC away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.58 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won 5-2 on 21 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
2
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Almere City FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, Almere City FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 50%, Almere City FC 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Den Bosch) and 50% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Almere City FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 38% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Den Bosch's recent games and 50% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Den Bosch run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Almere City FC 5-2 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.90 xG and Almere City FC 1.32 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.11 / defence 1.08 against Almere City FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.00, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 51% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 26%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 61%, Almere City FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.